On the balance of probability the evidence points to a castlebar win

PREVIEWS can be hard work. Dare I say boring at times. Predictions can make us look asinine (not for the first time, I hear you say) as anything is possible on any given day.

The new trend - well, relatively new - it to predict the scoreline of a final and believe you me, if any scribe has psychic powers, the likelihood is he would have long since disappeared to one of those Caribbean islands to spend his remaining days surrounded by young ladies, whose only job in life is to ensure you while away those remaining years restoring peace and happiness to a weary body, mind and soul.

Now, don’t get me wrong. At the risk of finding the bags outside the front door and the locks changed, I would like to make it clear I’m more than happy where I am at this particular moment in time and even if I did happen upon a spare million or two there would be a seat on the plane to Haiti for the woman who currently resides at the same address as mine.

Which brings me to the problem of forecasting the outcome of Sunday’s county senior football final between Castlebar Mitchels and Ballintubber. The job of the sports writer is to give an opinion, based on the evidence thus far, as to how he, or she, thinks a game will pan out.  It might be best approached in perhaps the manner in which a civil action is prosecuted in court, an area I do have some knowledge of given the multi-tasking that most journalists are expected to do in these times of economic hardship and despite our Minster for Finance telling us the good times are on the way back, I’m afraid they have yet to visit the Melvin household.

So let’s just get down to the claim before the court for the custody of the Moclair Cup, the deeds of which are currently with Castlebar, and present the cases on behalf of Castlebar and Ballintubber as to why one rather than the other should be crowned county champions for 2014 and should be given custody of the trophy. The first thing any lawyer worth his salt will ascertain is the credibility of his claim, and it has to be said both these teams are credible and have reached the final on merit.

There is absolutely no evidence in the five games both have played to suggest either did not earn the right to be in this decider on their own merits.
Credibility established, the next line of argument concerns weighing up the evidence before reaching a conclusion.

Castlebar present a strong case on the basis that they won all three games in their group and beat Ballintubber - in Clogher. The marker was laid down then and there. They advanced past Aghamore in the quarterfinal and then dispatched Garrymore in the semi-final. They have scored freely in all their games, amassing a total of 6-74 and conceding just 1-34.

The indications are Castlebar are strong at the back, solid in the middle, where Barry Moran, Danny Kirby and Aidan Walsh will be operating, but there is a question as to whether the attack brings the same potency to the table as their opponents. Overall they have a well-balanced look to them.

The case for Ballintubber is equally compelling. They have won two championships in four years (2010 and 2011), and beaten Castlebar in both.
En route to the final they bagged 16-71 and conceded 3-34, but those 16 goals have to be seen in he contest of nine against Knockmore in the semi-final, a freak result perhaps and Knockmore are not as bad a team as that result suggested.

The razor sharpness of their attack is clearly their strongest weapon and they have two warriors in the middle in Jason Gibbons and Stephen Broderick, while Alan Dillon will be operating around this area and he still has what it takes. Defensively they may not be as solid as Castlebar - Knockmore managing to score 2-12, which was significant - although it could be argued Ballintubber had left the stable door open knowing the horse had already arrived in France.

As in all civil proceedings, a judge will weigh up the evidence and arrive at a verdict on the balance of probability having examined all the evidence and sifted through all the CVs of players from both sides, and I would venture to suggest most judges would say this particular case is too close to call as both claimants have compelling evidence to suggest they deserve custody of the cup.

However, sitting on the fence is not something I have subscribed to over a long number of years with this publication and it is my view, based on the balance of probability and taking into account what these two teams have achieved in their recent history, along with a gut feeling, the pendulum swings, marginally, and I do mean marginally, in favour of Castlebar Mitchels to finally balance the books somewhat having lost two finals to their great rivals.

Verdict: Castlebar by two points - and I won’t predict a scoreline.