Top gaa analyst martin carneys verdict on the big match

THE game on Sunday is a hurdle Mayo have to clear.

For the fans it promises to be colourful, raucous and exciting.

For the participants it’s an occasion where optimum levels of self-belief, a fiercely competitive streak, discipline and an ability to think strategically are vital.

An All-Ireland semi-final against the league champions and many people’s favourites for the title is one of those fixtures with a special magic.

It is a clash that has always showcased the best in Mayo through the ages and has left indelible memories, some sacred and others sour.

The mystery of who broke John Finn’s jaw in 1985 remains unsolved to this day but the wonderfully iconic photo of Willie Joe fetching ball above Brian Mullins captures the splendour of that occasion.

Who will ever forget Ciaran McDonald’s majestic point in 2006? Courtesy of the sorcerer’s left foot, it was recently described by Eugene McGee as the best score he had ever seen.

It proved the clincher that propelled Mayo to that year’s decider with Kerry.

In the 2012 semi-final Cillian O’Connor’s three converted 45’s helped Mayo hang on in a close game whereas a year later that wretched empty feeling was again our lot when losing another eminently winnable final.

All of these mean little when the teams go head to head on Sunday.

The occasion itself should not pose any problems for  a team as well prepared and experienced as Mayo.

Good levels of organisation, tactical innovation and an element of surprise are necessary. Every player must find his A game and frustrating Dublin, wherever possible, should also be high on the agenda.

Dublin football is built around an exceptional goalie in Stephen Cluxton, a very pacy defence, a hard working midfield pairing and a forward division who, if given the room, have an abundance of flair and ingenuity.

To counteract their forward threat, Mayo may need a different response to what we saw in the quarter final.

I would retain a sweeper but who should be given the role is now the conundrum management must address.

Should Barry Moran remain having been such a success against Donegal?

As the high ball to the full forward is a seldom used tactic by Dublin, due to the absence of Eoghan O’ Gara, a new approach may be contemplated.

Perhaps moving Barry to a more conventional midfield position with the more athletic Tom Parsons playing slightly behind him might solve the problem.

Alternatively Kevin McLoughlin might drop back. A natural half back, who is playing well, he reads a game better than most and furthermore he has impressive pace and stamina. One way or the other a different solution from the management’s box of tricks is needed.

The Dublin attack has already scored 13 goals and 79 points, so their leading lights, Bernard  Brogan and Diarmuid Connolly, will require special attention.

Lee Keegan may go head-to-head with Connolly or alternatively Connolly may position himself at full forward. Brogan will play close to goals.

Man-to-man marking assignments are needed to curb them. Ger Cafferkey and Keith Higgins can succeed with this assignment.

Ciaran Kilkenny is another in-form player. Strong and explosive, his direct running and accuracy can trouble a defence. As he favours attacking the central channel it’s essential that this is sealed at all times.

Insisting that a strong defensive wall remains close to their own 45-metre line must be prioritised.

Mayo will win if the influence of this trio is curtailed.

Obviously a good start against Dublin is preferable. Yet in our last two championship games with Dublin, where more or less the same personnel then as now competed, bright openings were undone by lapses in concentration.

Two years ago a Dublin goal negated an early four points lead. Later, having  drawn level in the second half, Bernard Brogan replicated his earlier strike. It’s fair to say that Mayo’s problems were self-inflicted.

In the previous year’s semi-final an advantage that stretched to ten points was nearly wiped out when Dublin scored eight unanswered second half points. Recently this fallow trend re-emerged against Donegal but the problem of allowing teams back into a game can, if addressed, be eradicated.

Frustrating the Dubs in areas where their strengths lie has to happen.

Closing down Stephen Cluxton’s restarts will, if successful, cause them a degree of insecurity. His speed of thought and delivery is unmatched but when his outfield targets failed to respond appropriately on occasions in the games with Fermanagh and Westmeath his frustration grew.

Medium ranged restarts to the wings are his preference. Successfully targeting this supply line could trigger a Dublin implosion.

Consistent excellence has been the overwhelming verdict on Mayo’s midfield this year. Mayo can again dominate this zone with their ball-winning skills, endless stamina, impressive tackle count and physicality.

They deliver good ball to their attack. In particular we hope that the accurately punted delivery to the full-forward line will come packaged with the same whiff of danger that we have seen in previous games.

Dublin may recall Michael Darragh Macauley to counter their influence. Peripheral this summer, he has looked a frustrated figure on the bench.

I think his reinstatement instead of Brian Fenton would boost the Dublin cause. Given the secrecy surrounding selections, any changes, were they to happen, would occur just before throw in.

The twin inside threat of Aidan O’Shea and Cillian O’Connor can wreak havoc if the supply is reasonable.
Due to his strengths Aidan
will command special attention.

A man-marker, possibly Cian O’Sullivan, will attempt to curb his influence. Someone with a physical presence, perhaps Denis Bastic, may also end up on his shoulder.

No matter how Dublin try it will take a  massive effort to lessen his contribution. The net effect should free up Cillian to a degree and allow others up front that extra sliver of room.

Despite an earlier setback with the Dubs in McHale Park this year, I believe that Mayo will triumph.

This squad knows that this is a challenge they can meet and overcome.

Conquering the penultimate step is possible.