An experts view on who is going to win the mayo sfc final
MARTIN Carney, Ireland's foremost GAA analyst, gives his verdict on tomorrow's much-awaited Mayo SFC final between county town parish rivals Breaffy and Castlebar Mitchels at Elvery's MacHale Park at 3 p.m.
The following is his big-match assessment.
The county junior final gave us a northern derby. In the intermediate final neighbours from the south did battle.
Not to be outdone, the kingpins from the west, Breaffy and Castlebar Mitchels, meet on Sunday to reprise the 2013 final and decide the destination of the Moclair Cup.
In many homes in the parish there will be divided loyalties.
Take the Reilly family from Breaffy, for example.
It’s unusual to have a scenario where two brothers not alone will play on the opposing teams, but in all likelihood will find one marking the other.
The complications don’t end there for Tommy and Eoghan Reilly. Their father Tom, one of the best players to have represented Castlebar Mitchels over the last 30 years, is now a vital cog in the Breaffy management team.
That both teams are here on merit is hard to argue against. Unbeaten in the group stages, they met every challenge with a level of maturity that one expects from fancied teams.
In their opening game with Ballaghaderreen, Mitchels displayed an admirable sense of calm and patience to overcome a doggedly ultra-defensive opposition.
From then to their semi-final win over Knockmore, their victories have been characterised by wonderful bouts of attacking football where an emphasis on clever movement and clinical finishing has defined them.
An impressive return of 12 goals and 66 points resulting in an average winning margin of 12 points paints a clear picture of their pedigree. The presence of county panellists Barry Moran, Patrick Durcan, Neil Douglas, Danny Kirby and Tom Cunniffe may provide the Mitchels with a formidable spine but it has been the unselfish contributions of every member of the squad that has impressed me.
Breaffy have steamrolled through every hurdle after an opening day scare against Davitts. Their first half demolition of Ballyhaunis was both cold and ruthless.
They have amassed in total 15 goals en route to the final and, in Aidan O’Shea, they possess a one-man wrecking ball who, if provided with even a reasonable supply, can dismantle the tightest and best organised defence.
His brace against Ballintubber in the semi-final was a reprise of a 10-minute spell of outright devastation he wreaked on Ballyhaunis in the group stages.
The challenge for Castlebar is to curb his influence.
To do this they must have a dedicated and disciplined defensive system in place to limit his supply and neutralise his impact when in possession. A tall order indeed! Close to goal he has the strength to swat defenders aside (as he showed against Ballintubber) and the poise to finish clinically.
I think that Declan Shaw and Declan O’Reilly will assign Ger McDonagh the unenviable task of marking O’Shea. McDonagh is a highly intelligent player who wields immense influence within the squad.
Ray O’Malley or Tom Cunniffe will have the responsibility of acting as sweepers. Cunniffe has the pace and, more importantly, the experience to handle the role. Nonetheless, I don’t think it is possible at club level to totally eclipse the influence of Aidan but, in this trio, the Mitchels possess players who can limit his impact.
There is little that one team doesn’t know about the other. Most are past pupils of St. Gerald’s College or Davitt College. It was at St. Gerald’s that Seamie O’Shea and Barry Moran first became known to a wider footballing public.
On Sunday the result may hinge on the outcome of their midfield battle. Two years ago when they last met in the final Moran and Danny Kirby bossed the sector.
The motivation for both must be huge. Kirby has remained on the fringes of the county panel. A good showing here would elevate his status.
Barry, on the back of an excellent Croke Park performance against Donegal, will do his prospects of claiming a regular berth on next year’s county team no harm by taking the scalp of Seamie O’Shea.
Seamie’s ability to control the middle is crucial to Breaffy. Apart from providing the supply to his younger brothers up front, his mastery of the area is equally crucial in shielding Breaffy’s suspect defence from undue pressure.
It is this area of the pitch above any other that may compromise the Breaffy challenge. Three goals conceded throughout the campaign may suggest a solid rearguard but I think that this low concession had more to do with some excellent Robbie Hennelly shot-stopping than with a high standard of defensive play.
Colm Jordan, in his role as sweeper, has excelled but if Michael Hall and David Gavin fail to recover from injury, Breaffy will find it hard to cope in their absence. It will require huge levels of concentration and alertness to cope with the Mitchels attack.
Here Neil Lydon and Richie Feeney have brought long years of experience to the sector and provide assurance to those around them. Neil Douglas is another who will need little motivation to excel, while in Cian Costello and David Stenson the Mitchels possess a pair of will-o-the-wisps that are hard to pin down.
THE VERDICT
In the 62 years since the foundation of the club, Breaffy have yet to win a senior title. At the moment they are backboned by the impressive O’Shea brothers, Robbie Hennelly and Tommy Reilly.
I feel, if they are to succeed, their support cast must surpass anything that they have shown up to now in the championship. Mitchels, in contrast, are less dependent on the few and rely on a high standard of interplay, movement and teamwork.
Their bench has the capacity to bring their game to a higher level when called on while, by comparison, Breaffy lack the necessary depth. In the absence of their nemesis Ballintubber, the Mitchels will approach this game with greater levels of confidence and should do enough to win their 29th title.