I cling to the belief that a big Mayo display is imminent - Martin Carney

TO say it's been a strange campaign is an understatement.

Seven games. Underwhelming performances. Occasional glimpses of the Mayo we yearn for - bright, energetic and convincing.

Entangled with these fleeting moments have been periods of mediocrity that have confounded. No epics, a few snatches of brilliance and yet Mayo have reached their third final in five years.

Due to these inconsistencies many regard this as a match where the cards are firmly stacked in Dublin’s favour.

As All-Ireland and national league champions and confidently fortified by a lengthy unbeaten run, it’s easy to understand their favourites tag. In contrast, Mayo's form – lurching from mediocre to unconvincing – has earned for them the underdog label.

Yet I cling to the belief that a performance surpassing anything we have seen this year is imminent. To realise their ambitions they must come forearmed with a smart and carefully considered game plan.

Without recourse to a number of different options Mayo will lose. If they engage in a free-flowing open contest throughout there will be only one winner, and that's Dublin.

There will be periods to go toe-to-toe but an early emphasis on conservatism and pressurising the Dubs with unremitting aggression is important.

Mayo must seize the initiative and play the game on their terms with a variation in style and approach. Management and players will have identified strategies that they hope will withstand the heat of battle and inflict maximum pain on their opponents.

Early in the game I'd anticipate Mayo applying a defensive blanket to pressurise and frustrate Dublin. I would predict that Kevin McLoughlin will sit back and screen the full-back line.

However, it's important that McLoughlin, Paddy Durcan, Lee Keegan, Colm Boyle and Keith Higgins identify appropriate moments to attack and support their forwards.

With Donal Vaughan, Seamie O’Shea and Diarmuid O’Connor, they share an athleticism capable of unlocking the tightest defences.

At some stages an ambitious approach may turn out to be the best way of penetrating the Dublin rearguard.

Irrespective of what system they use, Mayo need an effective man-marking plan. Lee Keegan has consistently managed to render Diarmuid Connolly peripheral and we can expect this purge of the St. Vincent's man to continue.

For years he has flitted in and out of the team but this year Kevin McManamon has thrived in the role of orchestrating the Dublin attack.

Colm Boyle, I think, is suited to the job of getting tight on him. McManamon’s strengths are his distribution and ability to link play. He has also sourced and finished many important scores over the years. Together with Connolly they will need special attention.

A year ago I would have marked down Dean Rock exclusively as a place-kicker but one who carried little noticeable threat in general play. This year in every aspect - work rate, scoring from open play and frees - Rock is a different animal.

His rate of improvement has given Dublin an extra attacking dimension that must not be underestimated. Brendan Harrison is well capable of marking him and this could free up Keith Higgins to act as a double sweeper.

Apart from their individual ability, Dublin collectively are capable of fast, integrated and incisive forward play.

Their inside strike force of Brogan and Rock, with McManamon and Connolly occasionally interchanging, is potentially lethal.

Runners from deep - Paul Flynn, Ciarán Kilkenny, Michael Darragh Macauley and James McCarthy - draw defenders and create room for the score getters.

An inability to track these last year contributed to Mayo's semi-final defeat. We must guard against the problem recurring.

Securing possession from your own and disrupting your opponent’s restarts are two of the modern game’s key battle zones.

Dublin will push up on Mayo early on in an attempt to force David Clarke to kick long. Brian Fenton and Michael Darragh Macauley won a lot of possession from Kerry restarts.

Mayo's midfield has stuttered at times all season and have a battle on their hands to wrest the initiative from Dublin.

Around the middle I'd expect to see a lot of broken ball. Mayo's middle eight have a huge responsibility in mopping up the breaks, getting their half-backs on the ball and providing ammunition for their attack.

The battle of wits to disrupt Stephen Cluxton's kickouts will form another sub plot. Usually a model of calm, he can become excitable and rattled if his restarts don't find their targets.

It's also clear that this glitch often spreads panic in his outfield players. The success of this gambit requires huge energy and concentration but it’s an aspect of Dublin’s game worth targeting.

In their championship to date Mayo have averaged 16 scores per game. The settled trio of Aidan O’Shea and the O’Connor brothers have had inspirational moments but too seldom have we seen all the participants in the sector operating at their best at the same time.

By recalling Andy Moran Mayo have found a willing target man, a player capable of linking play and one whose scores against Tipperary proved vital.

Whether or not Mayo gamble on the twin threat of Aidan O’Shea and Barry Moran in the full-forward line remains to be seen but in the semi-final Dublin looked vulnerable to a direct approach from Kerry.

Cian O’Sullivan is Dublin's defensive lynchpin. He must be stopped at all costs from dictating the game’s tempo. Together, O’Sullivan, James McCarthy and Philly McMahon provide Dublin with three leaders who must continuously be put on the back foot.

A win is possible but Mayo will need a season-best performance where control, good ball retention, intelligence, aggression, intensity and discipline are ever-present.

Performing with a sense of clarity and fearlessness, they have to grab the initiative and execute a clearly defined game plan to perfection.

For this squad it is their day of destiny, their defining moment in what has been a wonderful adventure.

Dublin will be a tough nut to crack but if the team plays to its best at the critical moments Mayo will be crowned All- Ireland champions.