MAYO ELECTIONS 2019: Castlebar urban vote is destined to have huge bearing for FF and FG
WITH the Castlebar area reduced from an eight to a seven-seater on this occasion as a result of Kiltimagh returning to the new Swinford district, the key battles are being fought in and around the county town.
In fact, 15 of the 17 declared candidates either reside or work inside the 'old urban area', as it is now referred.
An interesting dynamic is the fact that only four of the Castlebar councillors who won seats in the last election in 2014 are back in the race. They are Michael Kilcoyne (Ind.), Al McDonnell (FF), Cyril Burke (FG) and Blackie Gavin (FF).
Thérése Ruane (SF) retired from public life, Henry Kenny (FG) and Frank Durcan (Ind.) are not seeking re-election while Lisa Chambers was elected a TD in 2016.
So, contrary to public perception, the field has a relatively new feel about it, albeit Joe McHale (SF) and Martin McLoughlin (FF) have served for a time on the outgoing administration after being co-opted in place of Ruane and Chambers, respectively.
Both McHale and McLoughlin have established solid platforms for themselves within a relatively short period of time, but neither can afford to take anything for granted.
It is often recalled in local political circles that five of the eight candidates elected in 2014 did so on the final count – and without reaching the quota.
McDonnell, Kenny, Durcan, Burke and Gavin had a long wait before getting over the line, with Gavin just snatching the last seat by a margin of 25 votes over Fine Gael's Brendan Henaghan, a great student of politics who sadly is no longer with us.
The outgoing council cathaoirleach does not want to suffer the same level of anxiety this time round, a factor reflected by his high profile and sustained doorstep campaigning.
A three-strong Fianna Fáil team is determined to reap maximum reward, as it did five years ago, with McDonnell and Gavin looking most likely to be returned, and McLoughlin in a proverbial dogfight for one of the last seats. A man not to be underestimated, however.
The Fine Gael picture is far more complex with battles being fought on a number of fronts, both internally and externally. A two-seat return would represent a respectable achievement though.
Despite his recent difficulties, outgoing Councillor Burke is regarded, to use betting terms, as a banker, leaving Ger Deere, Eugene McCormack and Donna Sheridan, who was added to the ticket by party HQ, to fight it out, as it were, among themselves.
Fine Gael did not win 'a town seat' in 2014 and one suspects the party won't allow that error to be repeated.
As the only female in the field, supporters of Sheridan will see this as a plus while those in the Deere and McCormack corners will regard their former public service as an advantage. It's hard to call, but one of them at least will be in the winner's enclosure.
Former Labour Party representative Harry Barrett's switch to the non-party ranks has served him in good stead during the campaign and his strong views on local issues have not been undermined by party policies like they were in 2014 when he attracted 607 first preferences.
Barrett can double his return this time out and help Councillor Kilcoyne form a strong independent block on Castlebar Municipal District.
When Kilcoyne's surplus of 1,210 was distributed in 2016, the biggest share (244) went to another independent candidate (Frank Durcan), underlining the strength of the non-party lobby in the town.
A significant development was the entry of former Sinn Féin party member, Antoin Mac An Bheatha (Anthony Vesey), into the contest as an independent candidate.
Did this point to a lack of unity within the Sinn Féin ranks in Castlebar that could undermine Councillor Joe McHale's re-election bid? Only time will tell.
The decision of Kiltimagh-based Renua candidate Michael Farrington to contest in Castlebar, rather than Swinford, is a talking point while Joe Daly (People Before Profit) has not shied away from controversy during the campaign.
Independents Des Walsh and Aidan Crowley are others determined to spring a surprise.
With 10 candidates other than Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in the running, one suspects the non-traditional pool could be big enough to elect three and deny the big two of sealing a third seat.
It's a tight call.
Prediction: FF (2), FG (2), Independents (2), Others (1).