MARTIN CARNEY'S BIG MATCH VERDICT: Mayo to win and reach yet another All-Ireland final

WHO would have thought it at the turn of the year? An All-Ireland semi-final in early December in an eerily deserted Croke Park with Mayo facing Munster opponents not represented by either Cork or Kerry.

Covid-19 has caused heartache and misery worldwide but in the sporting world, and in particular the world of GAA, the championship has flourished and provided everyone following their team on television with unexpected moments of great excitement.

In going back to the future and expediently resurrecting the championship knockout formula of old, we have seen games rarely lacking excitement.

It’s impossible to underestimate the joy felt by Tipperary people witnessing, for the first time since 1935, their football team becoming kingpins of the southern province and that of proud Cavan folk worldwide as their lads annexed their first provincial crown in 23 years.

With Tipperary now in our sights it’s time to ditch sentiment and meet their challenge head on.

For many this game is viewed as a foregone conclusion but whereas I don’t subscribe to that view, I think we have every reason to approach the game in confident mood. After over a decade as one of the country’s top teams, Mayo have earned the favourites tag through hard slog and perseverance.

Understandably with a decided edge in experience alone, few are looking beyond Mayo to reach their first final since 2017 indeed their seventh in all since the turn of the millennium.

The experienced heads in the squad will continue, just as they have done for years, providing direction for a team that has been markedly re-energised over the past six weeks with a host of new faces.

The displays of Oisín Mullin, Eoghan McLaughlin, Tommy Conroy, Ryan O’Donoghue, Bryan Walsh, Jordan Flynn and Mark Moran certainly have caught the eye but without the experience of the old guard, who have been responsible over time for creating a thriving dressing room atmosphere, I doubt if we would be looking forward to an All-Ireland semi-final next weekend.

Task

A cursory review as to what may have been a major contributory cause to the favourites losing their Ulster and Munster finals is worth recalling before we assess Mayo’s chances.

Looking beyond their immediate task and too far ahead of themselves was, in my opinion, the root cause for some of this winter’s prominent casualties.

Kerry took the eye off Cork in Munster and paid the price for experimenting with a defensive system that they intended to use at a later stage.

Similarly, I felt that Donegal fell into the trap of underestimating the Cavan threat and really had their minds on what they felt was a certain semi-final meeting with Dublin.

Forewarned, then, is forearmed, so I can’t see any danger in Mayo treating Tipperary without anything other than the greatest respect.

Without a totally focused approach there is a danger that what we saw in the Ulster and Munster finals could recur. Simply stated, Tipperary are in the way of another Green and Red All-Ireland final appearance and as the famous quote from Apocalypse Now goes, Mayo need to ‘terminate...with extreme prejudice’.

For the most part the teams have been strangers to one another due to the fact that they have competed in different National League divisions for a long number of years.

Yet in recent memory, the championship backdoor system has pitted the them against one another in 2018 and also in an All-Ireland semi-final in 2016. On both occasions Mayo prevailed, with the semi-final encounter providing the greater test.

Tipperary are still backboned by players from these games who were part of a golden underage generation that won the 2011 All-Ireland minor final against Dublin.

From that underage group Michael Quinlivan remains one of Tipp’s biggest threats. Of their total two years ago against Mayo, he accounted for one goal and two points, while he registered seven points from frees in the 2016 All-Ireland semi-final.

Quinlivan's recent display against Cork carried with it enough menace and warning to suggest that Mayo will need to get tight on him.

Lee Keegan seems the obvious choice for the marking role and given his current form, it is a job that he is more than capable of fulfilling.

Chris Barrett’s form against Galway bespoke a defender on top of his game and as Conor Sweeney is their other major scoring threat, I expect Barrett to look after him.

Sweeney as captain shoulders much of the leadership responsibilities and I feel his team’s chances suffer if his influence is diminished. Between them, Quinlivan and Sweeney got 12 of Tipperary’s total against Cork so keeping them in check will be crucial.

Threat

Colin O’Riordan is another potential threat. Though a professional Aussie Rules player with Sydney Swans, his emotional interview after the Munster final left you in no doubt as to what representing Tipperary means to him.

His second-half ball winning display lifted the Premier County at a crucial stage of the match and inspired those around him.

The extent of his impact around the middle third will be hugely important to Tipperary’s chances of success. Alongside Liam Casey, Stephen O’Brien and Robbie Kiely, O'Riordan is at the vanguard of a very good ball winning quartet who could make life very difficult for Mayo.

Goalkeeper Evan Comerford’s restarts are sweet, long and have a low trajectory that invariably finds one of the four.

Here Mayo, I feel, need to break ball and devour the subsequent scraps as they may lack the presence to win the aerial tussles.

Matty Ruane and Conor Loftus have shone on different occasions this season – Ruane against Galway and Loftus in the Hyde – but tomorrow only a top-class coordinated display will suffice.

I think the occasion will inspire them and with assistance from Diarmuid O’Connor and Aidan O’Shea, Mayo’s midfield sector can master their opponents.

With their general play and industry O’Shea and Cillian O’Connor have excelled this winter. Add to that Cillian’s liberal scoring return – one goal and 23 points to date – and it’s not hard to gauge his importance.

Having the flexibility to move from the edge of the square to further afield will probably be their brief but one way or the other Mayo need big performances from both.

I’m excited at the prospect of seeing speed merchants Eoghan McLaughlin, Oisín Mullin and Tommy Conroy in action in the wide-open spaces of Croke Park. Conroy has the pace and guile to trouble a static Tipperary full-back line.

I just hope all three play with a freedom of expression that reveals their gifts in full.

Along with their team-mates, I think they will possess levels of skill and athleticism that Tipperary will find hard to live with.

I thought in this department the Tipp lads were hanging on for dear life late in the Cork game.

Overall, I feel Mayo will be superior in every department tomorrow.

I am sure they will play with unshakeable belief and if during their dominant periods they display moments of extreme efficiency in front of goals, then there will be no doubting the outcome.

Mayo by at least five points and yet another All-Ireland final appearance.