Mayo can’t afford to take Louth lightly in battle to head group

by Aiden Henry

WHEN the draw for the All-Ireland quarterfinal group stages was made, the big game that stood out in Mayo’s group was their opener away to Kerry in Killarney.

With Louth at home in round two and having to play Cork at a neutral venue in the final group game, most felt that whoever won the Mayo versus Kerry game would more or less sail into the quarterfinals as group winners with little fuss.

While that might well happen, I think it won’t be plain sailing for Mayo as their upcoming games against both Louth and Cork could be a lot more difficult than people think, starting with Louth in Hastings Insurance MacHale Park, Castlebar, on Sunday (June 4) at 2 p.m.

A meeting of Mayo and Louth in the championship is a very rare occurrence, to say the least.

Indeed, we have to go all the way back to the 1950 All-Ireland final (Mayo won by 2-5 to 1-6) for the last clash between these two sides in a championship game. That means a 73-year wait will be bridged when they two sides take to the field in Castlebar next Sunday.

After defeating Louth in the 1950 final, Mayo went on to retain the title in 1951.

However, this was the last time Mayo would win the All-Ireland, despite playing in numerous heartbreaking finals since. To make it more interesting, Louth did have the pleasure of winning the Sam Maguire since then when beating Cork by 1-9 to 1-7 in the 1957 final. However, the Wee County have never contested a final since.

All of this should make next Sunday’s meeting between Mayo and Louth that little bit more interesting.

From the outset, let me say that Louth will not be making the long journey to make up the numbers when they travel to Castlebar for this second-round group game. With Mickey Harte at the helm, anyone taking Louth for granted could get badly burned, as a number of counties have found out in both league and championship games against them this year already.

However, I am sure Mayo manager Kevin McStay is far too long on the circuit to know you never dismiss any side's chances when it comes to championship.

He will be well aware that time and time again the championship always throws up shock results.

We only have to look back recently when Mayo travelled to the Kingdom for their Group 1 game.

How many gave Mayo much of a chance of winning that game? Not many. But not alone did they win it, they won it pulling up.

I am sure neighbours Roscommon were given little chance against Dublin in Croke Park last Sunday but they came away with a share of the spoils, as did Monaghan against, Derry who had given them a fierce hiding in the Ulster semi-final.

The same applies to next Sunday’s game between Mayo and Louth. Not many will give Louth much of a chance of coming out on top. It is for this reason and this reason alone that Mayo can’t afford to take Louth lightly.

DOGGED TEAM

Having said all that, it would come as one of the shocks of the year if Mayo were to lose to Louth.

When all is said and done, Mayo is a cut above Louth in footballing terms and should be more than able to deal with whatever Harte’s side throws at them.

Yet, it will be far from easy as Louth are a dogged team and will never give up.

Against Cork last Sunday they seemed to be down and out but still fought themselves back into the contest before making the Leesiders pull out all the stops in the closing stages.

Yes, we can be sure that Louth will be hard to break down, unlike the game against Kerry when it was open play throughout.

Louth are likely to play with a blanket defence and try and catch Mayo on the counter-attack.

However, it will not be a bad thing for Mayo having to deal with tactics like this as later on in the championship they will be meeting much more experienced teams who adopt the blanket defence strategy.

We don’t expect Kevin McStay and selectors to make many changes to the side that started against Kerry.

While all the players who played in the Kerry game came through without any injury, one expects McStay will give those were on the long-time injury list before the Kerry clash more time to clear their injuries up fully.

While the likes of Paddy Durcan, Enda Hession, Stephen Coen and Tommy Conroy all came through against Kerry unscathed, most of them are expected to be given a similar role by coming off the bench.

The same applies to Cillian O’Connor if he is passed fit to play.

A place on the subs' bench would most likely be for him.

With games now coming thick and fast and with the championship nearing the business end of things, Mayo will want as near as possible a full squad to choose from when they meet the big guns.

SCORING DIFFERENCE

Regardless of the result next Sunday, Mayo will need to get something from their final group game against Cork.

Beating Louth would not guarantee them finishing top in their group.

Let’s say if Mayo beat Louth and Kerry beat Cork in Sunday’s two group games, Mayo will still need to get at least a draw against Cork in their final group to guarantee them finishing top of the group.

Otherwise scoring difference could very well come into play to sees who tops the group.

If Mayo beat Louth and Kerry beat Cork, Mayo would have four points going into the last round and Kerry and Cork would have two points each.

In the last round, should Kerry beat Louth and Cork defeat Mayo, Mayo, Kerry and Cork will all be on four points each. Scoring difference would then decide who tops the group.

So, with this round robin stage format, it is important for the teams that they win their games by as big a margin as possible and if they lose a game they should do so by as little as possible.