Alan Dillon’s dash as Mayo's electoral chessboard witnesses decisive move
by Caoimhín Rowland
Wedneday, August 30, brought reunification news of Berlin Wall proportions.
Joyous songs flowed from the south Mayo townlands of Shrule, Kilmaine, Cong, Cross, The Neale and Glencorrib as recommendations made by the Electoral Commission mean they will be represented by a beastly five-seater constituency here in ol’ Mayo.
Dillon was like David Hasselhoff on the date of the announcement, present and standing in downtown Shrule with a campaign poster, surely still warm from the printers, proudly greeting weary Shrule folk into the safe confines of Mayo politics once more.
Maybe now Conor Mortimer can fill a third chapter on Alan Dillon for his revised autobiography.
Words of welcome and a green and red backdrop on the poster Dillon held aloft in Shrule, a fitting homage to locals who have campaigned for liberation from Galway’s yolk for almost a decade now.
Rumours of the Fine Gael deputy emblazoning his under armour shirt behind his suit with a scribbled inscription of “R.I.P. Galway West” have yet to be confirmed.
For Fine Gael, five has been a special number. In 2011, the last time Mayo had five TDs, we elected four from that very party out of the five - John O’Mahony, Michelle Mulherin, Enda Kenny and the last man standing, Michael Ring. So is it any surprise that Deputy Dillon was quickest out of the blocks to welcome the news with open arms.
It all but certainly guarantees his election at the next ballot, along with Deputy Ring.
The question now is who will join them on the ticket?
Maria Walsh, a current MEP, is from the recently salvaged kingdoms.
Almost 6,000 new voters have entered the arena and they’re her neighbours. Even if re-elected in June as an MEP, she’s fit for stiff competition if indeed Lisa Chambers runs for Europe.
Expect Maria Walsh to be parachuted into the general election arena whether as an elected MEP or a recently ousted one. Either way, Fine Gael will run three at a minimum in Mayo.
It leaves a headscratcher for Fianna Fáil.
Dara Calleary will enter the election as the most senior politician in the county. He’s the only man with hands on a ministerial portfolio, his role as director of elections for Fianna Fáil would have guaranteed some mathematical calculations and a hopping WhatsApp on Wednesday morning, particularly in Wicklow.
Stephen Donnelly is looking likely to lose his seat in the Garden County, a constituency with too many representatives covering the north of the county, and the loss of a seat means someone will be left out. Don’t expect too many tears.
Larger constituencies are typically a benefit to smaller parties, People Before Profit campaigned for more large constituencies, so it leaves us wondering, will there be a dark horse elected in the county?
Paul Lawless in Knock could very well be the man to benefit from an anti-establishment, pro-rural vote.
In 2020 the people I spoke to were impressed by his appearances on radio and on other platforms. He’s articulate and well spoken, already declared to run in the local elections, and a battle to become a TD for Aontú will soon be occupying the peace commissioner’s mind.
Councillor Mark Duffy may be another to throw his hat in the ring, a young go-getter and on the Christmas card list of the most powerful man in the world isn’t a particularly poor CV to possess.
He’ll breeze the local ballot in Ballina in June but I wonder if there’s an eye or two on a dip in the Dáil on the back of the five-seater news.
His name recognition is at an all-time high and with no FG Fine Gael representative in north Mayo and Calleary’s votes coming from outside the town, it could be time for Duffy to take the inevitable plunge.
What about Sinn Féin? Well Rose Conway-Walsh will not be perturbed, her seat is as safe as houses. The question about who will be her running mate will only further intensify in the coming months. Plenty of names have been bounded about but nothing concrete.
Sinn Féin will be keen to bring home as many comrades as possible. They left too much behind them in 2020, a costly mistake not to be made twice, but in fact they did exactly the same in local elections in the north, underestimating their popularity both sides of the border.
Perhaps a reconfiguration of the spreadsheets may be in order for Ard Comhairle. Third time’s the charm.
Roscommon and Donegal, our friends in the forgotten fraternity, have totally thrown establishment parties out of the pram.
Joe McHugh and Charlie McConalogue the last two remaining, with McHugh bowing out and McConalogue under pressure. Donegal could soon see a clean sweep for Sinn Féin and Independent Thomas Pringle. Roscommon have abandoned Civil War politics entirely, instead opting for independents and Sinn Féin.
Mayo, on the other hand, does not change so swiftly. I cannot see an election where Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael fail to get elected here.
Fine Gael HQ know the importance of this constituency for potential electoral success. Now that it is a five-seater, anything less than a return of three Fine Gael deputies from the land of yew trees and ewes will spell disaster for Varadkar’s party nationally.