An expert's guide to a crunch Mayo GAA weekend

by Martin Carney, GAA's foremost columnist

THE weeks have flown and we’re here again on the cusp of county semi-finals in all grades.

Football-wise – and admittedly I’ve only seen a limited number of games – there is a broad uniformity of approach in how teams set up, tackle and go about the pursuit of victory.

Deep-lying, blanket shields are commonplace, broadly speaking, with the most advanced defensive line being set around the 65m mark.

Retaining possession is valued above everything else. Its surrender by that dreaded turnover is the error most frowned on.

At senior grade, the first semi-finalists, Breaffy and Castlebar Mitchels, have settled for this way forward as much as any of the others.

Their success and progress can to a degree be attributed to the resolve, patience and collective understanding shown in implementing this.

The confidence evident with the speed and effectiveness in their counter-attacking ploys is also impressive.

Knockmore and Ballina seem to favour a broadly similar strategy but top it off with a slightly more expansive attacking approach.

I for one didn’t anticipate a Breaffy v Castlebar Mitchels semi-final. It’s not that I doubted either team’s ability nor, for that matter, the capacity of their leading figures to negotiate a successful winning course.

Hard work is the consistent trademark with both teams but due to their over- reliance on perfecting their defensive games, we haven’t seen the best of either attack so far.

Rarely scoring much before the break in their games, Barry Moran and Neil Lydon’s charges, after establishing their man-to-man marking responsibilities, have spent most of the opening periods probing for weaknesses in their opponents rather than concentrating on attack. For example, two points is all they managed before half-time during the opening round tie with Knockmore (their opponents, incidentally, managed just five of their own).

A similar trend was evident in their quarterfinal game with Ballintubber. Ahead on a four points to three scoreline, the Ballintubber boys enjoyed the slim advantage.

In both games, though trailing at the midway stage, Mitchels were very much still alive in the contests.

The strategy of keeping everything tight, remaining tigerish and working well as a collective has stood to them so far. Rory Byrne is vigilant and aside from his laser-like restarts, he has kept the team afloat with excellent saves; look back no further than to the double stops he made in the early moments against Ballintubber if you still doubt.

Donnacha McHugh’s return is timely, Donie Newcombe’s experience vital, Patrick Durcan’s leadership making demands of all and Sean Morahan’s precocious talent a real beacon. More than anyone, the durable and robust Gavin Durcan impressed against Ballintubber where, alongside him, the indefatigable Bob Tuohy is showing promise beyond his years.

The task against Breaffy, then, aside from beating them, will centre on devising a plan to minimise the influence of the O’Shea brothers.

Labelling a sportsman as playing the football of his life is dangerous but if ever the tag was appropriate, it is with Aidan O’Shea at the moment. He is playing like a man possessed right now.

Nothing happens with his team without his fingerprints. Ball-winning, goal-scoring (his double against Mayo Gaels a case in point), linking play and inspiring those around him are commonplace.

Where Breaffy intend to play him and subsequently who the Mitchels detail to mark him will provide one of the game’s intriguing sub-plots.

My own sense is that being double-teamed by Gavin Durcan and Joe Tuohy may be his lot.

But to say that he has been the sole beacon of hope for the Breaffy boys would do an injustice to others on the team. Brother Conor, Jack Livingstone, Matthew Ruane and the energetic Tommy O’Reilly and Davitt Neary have left their marks.

Defensively, a single goal is all that was collectively conceded to date (Aughamore’s strike against Castlebar) in the championship; Breaffy have averaged 12 scores a game to Castlebar’s 10 and Breaffy have a slightly more impressive average winning margin. Confidence will course through both on the back of the certainty that winning brings.

However, there is a difference. To date, Michels have prevailed in games that seemed to have drifted from them, games where they seemed to have bid farewell to the race.

Somehow, though, they stayed afloat and reached shore. Furthermore, in the last two championship clashes between them Castlebar prevailed by margins of 13 points and six points.

Added to this is the feeling that all season Mitchels are just doing enough to get on the right side at the final whistle. I don’t see anything different this time either.

The footballing gods had a decent belly laugh to themselves then they paired Ballina and Knockmore together in the second semi-final. The best of friends and the worst of enemies all at once.

However, with pleasantries left at the gate, Crossmolina will heave to the rigours of combat when these neighbours meet.

Many learned observers have refused to look beyond Ballina in predicting this year’s champions.

Without a title since 2007, narrowly beaten by Westport in last year’s decider and backboned by some of the best and foremost players in the game at the moment, they appear to have all the ingredients to add to their honours list.

It’s hard to fathom that since that glorious day in 2005, when they beat Portlaoise in the All-Ireland club final, the Stephenites have won the Moclair just once while last year’s defeat to Westport was their only other appearance in a final in that time.

Yet, in terms of ambition, desire, a willingness to restore the team to their correct place in the pecking order, as they see it, they shouldn’t be found wanting here.

With their balanced amalgam of young and not-so, the question on everyone’s lips is are they good enough?

There’s little doubt that David Clarke, Ger Cafferkey and Evan Regan have provided guidance while in Padraig O’Hora, Conor McStay, the particularly impressive Sam Callinan and Frank Irwin they appear a team of all the talents.

Leading scorers of the four remaining teams with their four goals and 74 points total, there is a distinct threatening feel to that front line if the supply is reasonable. Knockmore will have noted this and nothing is destined to provoke them than a Ballina team with a favourites tag on their backs.

Yet to concede a goal and only an average of 7.5 points a game, Knockmore will feel confident that they equally have enough to repel the best Ballina can throw at them. The outcome of the arm wrestle up front between the McHales, Kevin McLoughlin and the Ballina defence will ultimately determine the outcome of the game.

My leaning here is towards Ballina. I know Knockmore have won two of the last three finals and are excellent in negotiating tight finishes.

Yet, that sense of urgency in consigning the memories of their barren recent past and last year’s final defeat to the scrapheap rages strong with Ballina. The Stephenites by a few points.