Odds shortening on Sinn Féin taking two Mayo seats in next general election
by Caoimhín Rowland
LEO Varadkar holds all the cards coming into 2024. It’s surely a worry for many Fianna Fáil heads as he is the only man in possession of the power to call for a general election.
We know a local and European ballot awaits us in June 2024, but recent opinion polls show Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have both slipped by a point. Varadkar’s party at 20% and Fianna Fail at 15%.
A potential poor showing in June from Fine Gael will surely mean curtains for the Castleknock man.
More than any other party, Fine Gael councillors have the greatest sway over their top brass. If Varadkar costs you your job, expect an eye for an eye and his tenure axed.
A general election has to be called by February of 2025, but with USA and UK elections expected in late 2024, bookies are beginning to shorten odds on a general election before the local and European votes in June.
Easter 2024 is the date quietly mooted around Leinster House for a general election.
It’s within the timeframe politicians in Ireland like to canvass - the evenings will be getting longer and they will hold out hope to have a government formed just in time for the local and MEP selections and a summer recess.
Sinn Féin cannot afford another misstep. They sit at 32% currently but a failure in the last local and European elections in 2018, which heard calls from expected sections of the Dublin media for Mary Lou to resign, were a sore point.
In 2020 and most recently during the assembly elections for Stormont, Sinn Féin failed to run enough candidates to make hay.
They cannot make the same mistake four times. If they do it will certainly not be Mary Lou’s fault - finger pointing should be directed above her pay grade.
A ‘bumper’ budget returned a drop in support in that RED C/Sunday Business Post opinion poll for government parties.
Each week it seems sitting TDs announce their retirement from the political arena, and the growth in smaller fringe parties such as the Social Democrats and Áontu has begun to eat into Green and Labour votes.
Here in Mayo, a snap general election will catch everyone on the hop, bar of course Fine Gael.
Fianna Fáil will be placed in an unenviable position. Dara Calleary is the only sure bet to even run for the catch-all contingent while it seems Lisa Chambers has her heart set on climes further afield.
Little groundwork is being done by her office and that would suggest she has little interest in representing Mayo as a deputy.
Dillon and Ring will be safe to run as sitting TDs, and a third candidate in south or east Mayo may well emerge.
For Sinn Féin, Rose Conway-Walsh will return record votes and her strong showing in the county town could well see Donna Hyland catapulted into Dáil Eireann before she has even fully prepared for council chambers.
The Balla-based nurse has been working tirelessly on the campaign trail already and Sinn Féin now know Rose Conway-Walsh has more than enough votes to carry a comrade home.
From the outside flanks, Mark Duffy, if he so chooses to run, will have a large swathe of support from not just his native Ballina, but across the county.
His father hailed from the east of Mayo and his appearances in media and, in particular last April, his speech before Biden’s homecoming gave him a national platform.
Paul Lawless, a shoe-in for a council seat, is also likely to return stronger than his 2020 showing. He will be there or thereabouts for a TD spot.
The Knock school teacher's party Áontu occupy the right of centre arena on social issues that have only grown in popularity since the Covid years.
Independent Councillor Michael Kilcoyne recently noted how the people of Mayo are perhaps a bit slow on the uptake in respect to the national trend.
Roscommon have thrown out the established parties, Donegal will do likewise and in Kerry the departure of Brendan Griffin of Fine Gael is a blow that hasn’t yet been grasped by national commentators.
Sinn Féin will bring home two, Fine Gael will have Ring returning for sure, but the final two seats are anyone’s guess. Dillon, Calleary, Duffy, Lawless or Hyland will be there.
Larger constituencies favour fringe candidates. That may well be music to the ears of Duffy and Lawless meaning Calleary and Fianna Fáil will miss out.