Mayo View: Leo’s unenviable task of picking the date for the next general election

A big talking point among followers of politics since the turn of the year has related to the next general election and what date Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is likely to pick.

One way or the other, the Sinn Féin steam-train is coming down the line and there is little the outgoing government can do about it.

After two consecutive worrying poll results, Sinn Féin has bounced back to 30% in the latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks analysis.

Although Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have dropped one point and two points, respectively, they still hold a collective lead over Sinn Féin of seven points.

And when the Green Party’s three per cent is thrown into the mix, that’s a 10-point advantage for the outgoing government before a vote.

The likelihood is that the margin will be closed by Sinn Féin the closer it gets to a general election, currently scheduled for spring 2025.

That’s why there is a growing clamour for Varadkar to push the election bullet as early as possible in 2024.

But with the European and local elections due to take place in early June, he is unlikely to act before then. So the best bet after that is late September or early October.

Despite their position in the polls, the reality is that Sinn Féin is not going to make significant gains in the local or European elections because it simply does not have enough candidates to do so.

While Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party are expecting losses, they may not necessarily be suffered at the hands of Sinn Féin.

The point being is that the June elections are not going to have a big bearing on the general election, when it eventually comes.

Consequently, the priority for the government parties is to play to its strengths and not be sucked into confrontational situations by Sinn Féin’s opportunistic electioneering.

While the government continue to take heavy hits in respect of housing, cost of living, immigration, law and order and climate change, it still has an ace up its sleeve.

It put a lot of money into people’s pockets during the Covid years and ensured many businesses survived despite the huge challenges posed by the pandemic.

While Sinn Féin may well be the biggest party after the next general election, there are no guarantees that Mary Lou McDonald will be the first woman Taoiseach in the history of the State.

It’s all to play for and that’s without question.