Local election upsets are imminent in east Mayo battleground

by Caoimhín Rowland

Focusing on the Swinford electoral area could help spell out a trend that may occur across the county.

Currently, the east Mayo ward has two Fianna Fáil and one each from Fine Gael and Sinn Féin.

A prediction using current polling would see that change come voting time.

Headlines from national opinion polling consistently repeats the narrative that Sinn Féin’s support is dropping, but on current form they are still predicted to better their historic performance from 2020.

The same cannot be said for the two governing parties.

Swinford, like many areas in the county, has issues that cannot be ignored.

The large biogas plant saga proved a political death nail for Michael Smyth of Fianna Fáil and a campaign to reopen the garda station permanently is also key in the minds of local representatives, not to mention the opportunities an international airport and Dublin’s warming towards the Western Rail Corridor provide.

No one wants to be caught on the hop in a key district where voter dissatisfaction is rife.

Gerry Murray of Sinn Féin will be the closest thing to the safest bet in Ireland to be elected top of the polls in Swinford come June 7.

In 2019 he received almost a quarter of first preference votes, and that number will rise again this year.

Murray will also have a running mate alongside him, John Sheahan, who is no stranger to local elections having contested the 2014 local ballot for Sinn Féin when Swinford was grouped in with Ballina Municipal District.

Sheahan came within inches of being elected on that occasion.

A similar showing in June would guarantee two past the post for Sinn Féin in the four seater and a potential nod for Murray to partner Rose Conway-Walsh for any upcoming general election may come his way.

Sinn Féin had an embarrassing local elections in 2019 but Conway-Walsh could also have brought someone home with her the year after in the general election, showing how quickly the tide turned for the party.

Ignore the prophets of doom about Sinn Féin slipping, they’ll dominate come voting time.

But who will lose out?

Voters discontent will come at the expense of Fianna Fáil, both nationally and in Swinford.

We are already seeing many of the party’s politicians openly attacking government partners, the Greens are the punching bag currently for Barry Cowen and Billy Kelleher, two men keen to get on the good side of farmers to attain a seat in Brussels, but it’s clear, the Green brand is toxic and Fianna Fáil are viewed as guilty by association.

The ‘Swinford swing’ could potentially be recreated across the country, both John Caulfield and Adrian Forkan could lose their seats in the Swinford Municipal District, Sheahan is likely to upset the apple cart but so too could Kilmovee man and Aontú representative Tom Horan.

He ran a respectable race in 2019 and favour toward Peadar Toibín’s movement has grown in recent years.

Alongside Paul Lawless there could be two Aontú representatives in the Swinford/Claremorris Municipal District.

Antoinette Peyton, Mayo’s youngest political candidate, also packs potential to claim a seat. Eager, intelligent and ambitious, it may be an election cycle too soon for Peyton to win a spot in the chamber but the fact she is the Charlestown side of Killasser and Cruise is deep west of that territory could see her run a close contest.

Certainly Fine Gael apparatchiks are considering Peyton for a post-Neil Cruise future and a possible general election candidate due to the dearth of vibrant blueshirt candidates in the east of the county.

At only 22 and vocal about the loss of jobs and fears over the lack of garda presence she will get a flavour for campaigning in the next few months and time will tell if the former student politics candidate in University of Galway will stick around for the long haul.

We’re now less than three months out from voting, lots can happen particularly when it comes to a local ballot, but one thing is certain.

There is an unfortunate trend for Fianna Fáil and it will be spelled out to them in Swinford come June.