Mayo politics braces itself for a game-changer election outcome

The outcome of the local elections in a week's time is likely to prove a game-changer for politics in the county.

For the first time in the history of Mayo County Council, there is an increasing likelihood that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will have to form an alliance in order to control whatever power exists within the authority’s chamber at Aras an Chontae in Castlebar.

They refused to do so after the 2019 election as Fianna Fáil worked out a deal with a six-strong independent block, thus excluding Fine Gael from key roles, including the post of cathaoirleach.

After the ballot papers are counted on the weekend after next, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael may be left with no choice but to come together like their parties did after the 2020 general election.

Here’s why.

Sinn Féin are in play to win five seats, a result that would give them a strong voting block for the first time.

Accepted, the party only secured one seat in 2019 - so five, in fairness, looks ambitious but it can’t be ruled out in view of the party's 22% national ratings, albeit a drop of seven points over the past year.

Secondly, the independent benches are likely to swell by one to seven seats despite the retirement of Councillor Seamus Weir.

Hollymount Councillor Patsy O’Brien, who was returned Fine Gael five years ago, is destined to be elected as an independent on this occasion while few would bet against Michael Kilcoyne, Christy Hyland and Mark Duffy returning, while Richard Finn and Johnny O’Malley are also expected to make the cut again, albeit in tight battles.

It would be a surprise, however, if another one or two non-party candidates don’t make it as decent opportunities exist in Castlebar and Westport, in particular.

There is also a strong chance of Aontú’s Paul Lawless winning a seat in Claremorris.

So, in the event of Sinn Féin winning five, Independents seven and Aontú one, that leaves 17 seats for FF and FG, a drop of six seats between the two of them.

A majority on the council is 16 seats, leaving the traditional big two with no choice but to work together.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael don’t agree that Sinn Féin are in the equation for five seats and they may well be right.

In any event, a fascinating battle is unfolding and few really expected it to be so.