Aontú's rise set to rock the Claremorris election boat with Mayo FG seat at risk

by CAOIMHÍN ROWLAND

Claremorris has been a traditional safe house for Fine Gael councillors.

The year 2019 was a bright blue day for the party in the south of the county.

But challengers, primarily from the right, have entered the fray to challenge the status quo on the back of the immigration issue.

The nascent insurgent is Aontu’s Paul Lawless who is likely to claim a Claremorris seat after votes are counted.

Lawless was disappointed with his 2019 local election run, but the 2020 general election campaign boosted his name further, as has vocal opposition to IPAS centres in the south east Mayo area.

Lawless is named as one of Peadar Toibín’s reserves should the leader of Aontú win a seat in Brussels, but a spell in the council chamber looks most likely for the Peace Commissioner and secondary school teacher from Knock.

Based on 2019’s poll, Fine Gael’s Tom Connolly looks to be under threat.

He was vocal in highlighting immigration in his area, citing the modular housing for Ukrainians in Claremorris and speaking up against the Castlemagarrett estate’s potential to be used as a site for asylum seekers.

The modular housing went ahead, while plans for the historic estate look to have stalled.

That saga and subsequent protest was a deciding factor in Mayo county councillors' decision to cease communications with the Department of Integration.

However, that vote has had zero repercussions or impact in preventing IPAS accommodation in the county.

Patsy O’Brien will be relying on a more personal vote this time as an independent. It could impact transfers for many of his former colleagues, including Connolly and Ballinrobe’s Michael Burke.

O’Brien has foregone campaign posters in exchange for a charity donation and will be expected to top the poll as a non-party candidate.

Mark Devane was the first Independent Ireland man named to run in Mayo.

A farmer who has returned from a spell in Australia, he could be helped by the grá Michael Fitzmaurice possesses in rural areas.

But it will not be enough to get him over the line on this occasion as himself and Lawless will be drawing from the same trough of disillusioned voters.

Alma Gallagher, the replacement for Fine Gael stalwart John Cribbin in Ballyhaunis, will be hoping her large social media spend and Cribbin’s faithful following will steer her over the line for Fine Gael.

She is facing a Ballyhaunis challenger, Stephen Nolan of Fianna Fáil, who has the backing of Mayo GAA legend Keith Higgins.

Nolan will have to claim Ballyhaunis for himself to be in the running for a seat.

Gallagher, working in Claremorris and from Ballyhaunis, on the surface has the better prospect. Combined with Cribbin’s positive legacy, she will have the best bet of retaining the seat for Fine Gael.

Richard Finn has a proven track record in Claremorris and the rising popularity of Independents in the polls will boost his numbers even further, while there is a strong enough vote in Ballinrobe for outgoing FF Councillor Damian Ryan in the south Mayo town.

It’s an electoral area which could be a bell-weather for Fine Gael countywide once votes are tallied.

PREDICTION:

Fine Gael (2), Independents (2), Fianna Fáil (1), Aontú (1).

Belmullet, Ballina and Westport verdicts

Other predictions by Caoimhín Rowland published previously.

Belmullet: Fianna Fáil (1), Fine Gael (1), Sinn Féin (1).

Ballina: Fine Gael (2), Independent (2), Fianna Fáil (1), Sinn Féin (1).

Westport: Independents (3), Fine Gael (1).