Insight: Fianna Fáil stands at a major crossroads in Mayo county town
Is Lisa Chambers in the wrong party?
by Dr. Richard Martin
THE next six months are the most important of Lisa Chambers’ entire political career.
She lost her Dáil seat in the 2020 general election. She then entered the senate. She was a candidate in the 2024 European elections and failed to win a seat.
She’s running out of excuses. This is it. She simply can’t afford to not win a seat at the next GE.
If she fails to be re-elected her life in electoral politics is over. No politician could survive the rejection of the electorate on three occasions, particularly a member of the grand old party FF.
From her point of view, is it a risk worth taking?
Before I go any further it’s important to note that at this stage it’s not an absolute certainty that she will represent FF at the next GE. Every prospective candidate has to go through the convention.
There is a growing sense in Castlebar that she may be challenged, although serious options are few.
Paul McNamara from Achill topped the poll in the recent council elections.
He is also a very successful businessman and employs close to 200 people in Shareridge, based in Castlebar.
Is he interested in contesting the nomination?
The Bould Blackie just celebrated 30 years of unbroken electoral success at the recent council elections.
But his decision at the annual general meeting of the council to back the formation of a 10-strong technical group will probably see him being expelled from Fianna Fáil and out of the equation as a potential GE candidate.
However, he may well run as an independent.
I went over to Blackie’s corner at the recent count. Michael Ring was sitting with him. Blackie’s mother Dot is originally a Westport woman. Both men were in good form.
It was interesting to observe the two at close quarters. Both came from the street. Nothing was handed to either on a plate. Two streetfighters. The only difference that I could discern is that one is from the county town and the other isn’t.
If Blackie was to go for it as an independent, he’d need the full backing of Michael Kilcoyne. If Kilcoyne was in his corner and pushed hard for him he’d sweep the town vote, a vote Senator Chambers could never get. She was beaten hands down by Rose Conway-Walsh in the town in the 2020 GE.
The combined FPV of Kilcoyne and Blackie is 4,000. That’s a huge vote before you even leave the town. Three thousand more from the rural areas would seal the deal.
Strategically, having the Bould Blackie in the race could be a massive coup for Deputy Calleary. He would curb RCW in a big way. It would be disastrous for RCW if he were to run. Her FPV would take a massive hit from the 2020 GE.
Returning to Fianna Fáil, the man who will decide the fate of who represents the party in the next GE is Al McDonnell.
He is the longest-serving member of Mayo County Council, with close to 40 years of continuous service.
He is deeply influential at all levels within FF locally and nationally.
He is the kingmaker and if he brings his influence to bear on the side of any candidate they will be the one chosen.
All things being equal I would expect him to favour Senator Chambers as the candidate to lead Castlebar FF into the next GE.
If Senator Chambers finds herself in a contest at the convention she will have a real fight on her hands.
She was beaten hands down by Cowen and Blaney in her fight to represent FF in the European elections.
Cowen received 894 votes from the delegates. Blaney received 803 votes and she received 570 votes from the delegates.
That’s a fairly significant gap and by rights, if FF were to run two candidates she lost fair and square and shouldn’t have been on the ticket.
Running three candidates in the European elections was an act of lunacy and could only succeed in electing Barry Cowen. It demonstrates poor leadership on behalf of Micheál Martin and blatant favouritism.
If and when Micheál Martin leaves the stage where does that leave Lisa Chambers? It’s doubtful she will experience the same favouritism from the next party leader.
If the party delegates in Mayo are put to a vote later this year she will have it all to do to convince them she should lead Castlebar FF into the GE.
Councillor McDonnell’s influence can only extend so far.
Ultimately she will have to convince the majority of the delegates herself.
FF locally didn’t go out of their way to canvass for her in the European elections.
Ballina nor Westport FF made any visible attempt to support her. Why would that change for the GE?
It could be argued that the FF councillors were busy with their campaigns but I’m not entirely convinced. Martin McLoughlin campaigned hard for her but ultimately lost his seat.
When P. Flynn was riding high he had a machine within the town.
Observing her at the count I noticed that she didn’t engage meaningfully with the Cowen or Blaney camps. Former Taoiseach Brian Cowen was there on the night.
There was squabbling between all three candidates during the campaign.
Cowen declared himself openly at one stage as the ‘lead candidate’, Senator Chambers contradicted this in the press. It didn’t look good and showed a lack of unity.
In truth, Cowen was the lead candidate. He has the bloodlines and the authentic FF credentials. There could only ever be one winner. I saw her in conversation at various stages with Nina Carberry, Cyril Burke and Mairead McGuinness.
She looked more relaxed and comfortable in their company. Perhaps, the fundamental issue is that she is in the wrong party.
I’m of the firm opinion that her obvious talents would be far more appreciated in the FG party. It may be that she may have to move to Dublin, ala Brian Lenihan Sr, and start afresh on the east coast where her abilities are more appreciated.
But, she may have to go one step further and join FG. The party of law, order and law library. Is it such a quantum leap?
In realpolitik terms, I would say no. Dr. Noel Browne was a member of five different parties over his long and glorious career.
(Dr. Richard Martin is a regular columnist with The Connaught Telegraph).