Mayo Analysis: Where has it all gone wrong for Sinn Féin?
by Dr. Richard Martin
On July 6, 2024, the latest survey of voters indicated a four-point drop in support for Sinn Féin, leaving the party at 18% in the first poll since the recent local and European elections.
The party was at a high of 36% in May 2022. So what has gone wrong? Fine Gael is currently at 24% and Fianna Fáil is at 20%.
Sinn Féin were a virtual certainty to lead the next government in the summer of 2022 and over the last two years they have collapsed in the polls. Their support has halved.
Why? Where has it all gone wrong? The answer is multifold.
Firstly, despite all the naysayers and merchants of doom, objectively the coalition government has been good.
They have had to deal with and grapple with the Ukraine War, Brexit and Covid-19, all existential crises.
The country is currently at full employment. Inflation has fallen to 2% from a peak of 9.6% in June 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The thinking electorate can see that despite all the obstacles that have been put in front of them, this coalition government has acquitted itself well.
Our global tax revenue, which constitutes the four pillars of income tax, VAT, corporation tax and excise duty, has gone from roughly €35 billion in 2014 to €85 billion in 2024.
That’s more than a twofold increase in ten years. As this is the case, well they must surely be doing something right.
Could SF do the same?
A huge tax revenue means the government can build the new children’s hospital, a motorway from Limerick to Cork, open the western rail corridor, etcetera. Public expenditure is reliant on tax revenue.
I would be very apprehensive at the prospect of SF meddling with the tax system currently in place.
Our corporation tax revenue over the past 10 years has soared. It now represents one-quarter of total Exchequer receipts. Our low corporation tax rate of 12.5% is hugely attractive to international business.
Only Hungary (9%) and Bulgaria (10%) are lower. Big business wants low taxes, an educated workforce and a stable government. We possess all three.
We need only to look around us in this town and county to see the benefits of our unique tax position within the EU. Baxter. Allergan. Coca-Cola. Hollister. Meissner.
It is unlikely that SF would be foolish enough to interfere with our corporation tax rates if they managed to form a government.
But big business would be fearful and apprehensive of SF coming to power. There are too many unknown unknowns with SF.
I remember watching Pearse Doherty debate with Paschal Donohoe after the release of the budget in 2022.
It was a pitiful performance and, in my view, he would be totally out of his depth in the Department of Finance.
They have no experience in government in the Republic.
They refuse to take their seats in Westminister, which is noble but ultimately fruitless and pointless, and the power-sharing arrangement in Stormont breaks down every second month.
They have no experience participating in a stable, functioning government. It is very easy to be a hurler on the ditch.
But when the hurler on the ditch finds itself out on the pitch in the thick of the action, things aren’t always so easy. The hurler on the pitch knows how volatile the game can be.
We live in a volatile world and we have a global open economy.
Secondly, Sinn Féin have been weak in opposition. Locally and nationally.
Locally, they got a mandate of 3,000 votes from the town of Castlebar in the last GE. They never opened an office.
I asked Rose Conway-Walsh (RCW) why she didn’t open an office in Castlebar after the GE in 2020 on the Aidan Crowley Show on Community Radio Castlebar (CRCfm) and she replied that she simply didn’t have the funds to do so. I’m not sure I buy that answer.
Sinn Féin is the wealthiest political party in Ireland.
They employ 200 staff, own 50 properties and have a fundraising network that has raised $15 million in recent years in the US. William Hampton, an English man, left an estate worth up to €4.6 million to the party in 2019. As you do.
The donation by William Hampton is the largest ever received by a political party on the island of Ireland.
Surely, they could have found a place in the town. By not doing so, they left the field wide open to FG who have capitalised to great effect.
RCW felt that she could only open offices in Ballina and Belmullet to serve her constituents.
Sinn Fein only managed to return one member (Gerry Murray) to the council after the recent local elections, a disastrous result.
The failure of Rosaleen Lally in Belmullet and Una Morris in Ballina to be elected to the council chamber was a rejection of RCW herself.
So it begs the inevitable question: Is she doing the constituency work that’s necessary to be successful electorally?
The poor results of SF locally were mainly due to weak candidates and complacency.
The two candidates who ran in Castlebar, despite their strengths, were not well enough known.
It’s hard to vote for someone you don’t know. You have to earn the vote.
The key reason SF has fallen so dramatically in the opinion polls is the issue of immigration, which had gripped the electorate.
There is a distinct correlation between the drop in SF support and the rise in support for the far right.
Bluntly put, a huge cohort of the SF base has migrated to independent candidates who are anti-immigration.
SF has not been strong enough to come out and tell the electorate where they stand on the issue.
As a consequence, they look weak and indecisive. Not a good look when you want to form a government.
If SF had come out strongly on the issue, they may have lost support from some of their base, but they may have gained respect, admiration and support from left-leaning middle-class voters.
The world is in conflict. War in Ukraine. Televised genocide in Palestine. Hidden genocide in Tigray. Famine in Yemen.
When there is conflict, there will be refugees.
We are part of the EU and we must shelter and protect people who are seeking refuge from the storm.
We can’t play both sides of the coin. We have a unique status in the EU as a tax haven for international business, and with that comes certain responsibilities.
We have to provide shelter and refuge like all the other EU countries to those fleeing war and terror.
I went to the pro-Palestine rallies that were held in the last year.
I was at a rally in Ballina on a Sunday morning. RCW spoke off the cuff for 10 minutes. It was a wonderful, emotive and powerful speech. I was glad to be there to experience it.
But I haven’t seen that passion from Mary Lou in the Dáil.
She is the leader and their plummeting, ominous and rapid descent in the opinion polls begs the question: Is her position tenable?
In all the other parties there would have been a heave by now.
Enda Kenny experienced it in 2010. Why are her backbenchers so quiet? Is the party controlled by figures in the north where dissent is forbidden, as some in the media suggest?
Astonishingly, there has been no revolt. Not a dicky bird.
And if there is a contest who is a likely successor? Pearse Doherty?
When Leo Varadkar stepped down after the referendum was defeated, he was replaced by Simon Harris.
FG has experienced a huge fillip as a consequence. Is that a gambit for SF? Sacrifice Mary Lou before the GE and replace her with Pearse Doherty?
In closing, RCW has it all to do to keep her seat, particularly if Paul McNamara is on the ticket for FF. He’s from Achill.
He’s the poll topper in her area and he would hurt her in Belmullet, Bangor, Achill and Westport.
A successful businessman who employs a lot of people, he would also poll strongly in the county town.
Alan Dillon has established himself in Castlebar and has a powerful party machine behind him.
Lisa Chambers got a solid vote in the European elections within the county. She has the wind at her back. RCW won’t get 3,000 votes in Castlebar next time.
If Mark Duffy runs in Ballina that will hurt Dara Calleary and herself, but Calleary can weather the storm. He has loyal support from his councillors.
Paul Lawless from Aontú would hurt her in Claremorris. He has established himself now and even if he is unlikely to be elected, he could do considerable damage.
Independent Ireland will run a candidate, possibly new Louisburgh Councillor Chris Maxwell.
We were looking at possibly three, a definite two SF candidates, being elected to the Dáil a few years ago when SF was flying high at 36%; they now have a task to hold on to one.
As we know now, the party's popularity was never policy based.
That’s why they are in real trouble and it remains to be seen whether or not they will recover in time for the imminent GE.
(Dr. Richard Martin is a regular columinist with The Connaught Telegraph).