Opportunity surely knocks for former Mayo GAA star Lee Keegan

by Caoimhín Rowland

The sped-up announcement of an expected giveaway budget gives rise to further speculation of a general election in autumn. Pundits' predictions range from October 25 to November 15.

The one thing they all agree on is that there will be no spring general election.

In 2016, Enda Kenny made an almost fatal decision by listening to his coalition partners and staying on over the winter.

It cost many Fine Gael TDs their seats and left the party relying on a supply and confidence arrangement with Fianna Fáil.

Taoiseach Simon Harris will be keen to strike while the iron is hot, especially while the nation’s lead opposition party appears to be in disarray.

Sinn Féin had a poor local poll in June, but a striking statistic has emerged locally.

Swinford local electoral area was the fourth most Sinn Féin-backed constituency nationwide at 33.2%, and the highest non-border county.

For posterity, Carrickmacross-Castleblaney had 41.9%, Buncrana 40.9%, and Monaghan (Town) 35.6%. Sandwiched between Swinford and Monaghan Town was Dundalk-Carlingford at 32.1%.

These figures, provided by Professor Adrian Kavanagh, must give food for thought for Sinn Féin number crunchers locally, highlighting the necessity to add Councillor Gerry Murray to their ticket alongside Rose Conway-Walsh.

Sinn Féin candidate strategy talk is as consistent as a pint of Guinness appearing at an Irish overseas diplomatic event: one doesn’t hit the spot, but two could land you in trouble.

Evidently, an appetite for change still exists in this county, and as we jump from four to five seats, it’s time to examine who exactly will be the contenders gunning for a shot to represent Mayo in Dáil Éireann at the next general election.

A much-publicised Fianna Fáil three-candidate strategy of Minister Dara Calleary, Senator Lisa Chambers and Achill-based Councillor Paul McNamara hit a bump when the latter announced the withdrawnal of his nomination on Friday night.

McNamara’s inclusion could have done untold damage to Rose Conway-Walsh. They’re both from the Belmullet local electoral area, and he was sure to pick up votes across west Mayo, even in the county town where Conway-Walsh polled impressively well in 2019.

Castlebar will become a dogfight.

Lisa Chambers will once again battle it out against Alan Dillon for local backing, but among the current councillors, two independents, Harry Barrett and Blackie Gavin, look to be both on manoeuvres for a tilt at a general election.

There will be 2,000 to 3,000 non-government votes here in Castlebar, as seen in 2019 when Conway-Walsh hoovered up mammoth support, and local politicians will be keen to bag that for themselves.

Another interesting note is the potential of a failed local election candidate and another independent, Stephen Kerr.

His performance was the shock of the Castlebar local area, and if he can grow that support and gain more votes outside his area, as his online publication has a huge reach across the county, Kerr could truly scupper Rose’s safety net in Castlebar.

I asked the Sinn Féin deputy at the local elections why she believed her votes from 2019 failed to follow Donna Hyland and Maura O’Sullivan and instead went to Independents.

Her response was measured. Incumbency and Sinn Féin candidates' inexperience seemed to be the answer.

But as trends across the country show, the rise of anti-immigration sentiment and resulting candidates at elections pose a greater threat to Sinn Féin than to the status quo.

In Ballina, Mark Duffy looks eager to cement his name on the national stage.

Yet his bid will be matched by Councillor John O’Hara.

The Bonniconlon man has the chains of office and a whopping vote to match.

The three Ballina-based candidates, Dara Calleary, John O’Hara and Mark Duffy, will be a fascinating tussle to witness.

Duffy will be the strongest in the town among those three, but Calleary should be safe to hold his seat.

O’Hara’s vote at a local level isn’t necessarily a Fine Gael vote, he’s a hard worker on the ground and grows his share at each election.

Is there space in Dáil Éireann for two Ballina TDs?

The Sinn Féin deputy in Belmullet would have to lose out entirely for that to happen.

In east Mayo, Alma Gallagher is the preferred third Fine Gael option at this point.

She’ll be more than just a symbolic paper candidate and will work as hard as she did to retain John Cribbin’s Fine Gael seat in the Claremorris electoral area.

She is already quick out of the traps, securing a position as leas cathaoirleach of her district and making plenty of noise.

Aontú will indeed have Paul Lawless contending for a seat once again. His third election was the lucky one, and the Knock-based councillor will be keen to continue the momentum.

Independent Ireland, as has been said here before, will have a large say in Mayo’s election, and with heightening anxieties around turf cutting, rural affairs, and immigration, their position as a party of protest could work out well.

If indeed Michael Ring vacates his seat and opts for retirement, and his party looks north towards O’Hara, there’ll be an almighty scramble for Westport.

For Lee Keegan, opportunity surely knocks.