Where do Mayo Fine Gael go from here?

by Caoimhín Rowland

MAYO is in line for two new TDs come the next general election. Taking a look at geography over political parties alone may be of more fascination as south Mayo comes into strong focus with its inclusion inside the safe confines of the county’s borders.

From the Claremorris local area, Alma Gallagher, the recently elected councillor, looks all but certain to be the south Mayo candidate for Fine Gael. A remarkable rise from councillor to TD could beckon if current opinion polls hold true to the count centre.

In 2011, her party won four out of five Dáil seats. Now strategists are debating if they should run three or four candidates. The decision, to be made before the end of this month, will be telling of the party’s standing.

The 'Harris Hop', which has injected renewed vitality into the 14-year ruling party, appears to show no sign of abating. However, it would be a conservative approach from the Blueshirt number crunchers to rely on a trio.

The mystery of where Michael Ring’s vote will spread will be beyond the powers of even the finest Excel spreadsheet operator.

In the absence of the Ringer, attention has shifted to the north of the constituency. The performance of Bonniconlon Show organiser John O’Hara hasn’t gone unnoticed, earning him a spell this year as cathaoirleach of Mayo County Council.

Yet, a surprising figure emerged in the council chambers on the day of the AGM - former TD Michelle Mulherin. Despite having two heavy-hitters in Mulherin and O’Hara in Ballina to battle for the nod, speculators speak about Independent councillor Mark Duffy joining their ranks, a rumour Duffy has flatly rebuked.

Mulherin, one suspects, would fancy her chances. She was key in driving the innovation quarter to Ballina, the new bridge between Swinford and Foxford, and is well admired along the River Moy. She may have to be offered a promise to put her name forward, however.

A role in the Seanad could entice her to re-join the ranks, but she has been there before.

Fine Gael lack experience to guide them through their post-Ring and Kenny era. Despite an ascendancy to a ministerial portfolio, it will be Dillon’s first time entering an election as an incumbent, and with only four years’ experience in politics, he faces his toughest task in leading Fine Gael into the next general election.

Mulherin has been there and bought the t-shirt, another indicator in her favour.

John O’Hara would relish the opportunity, but it seems Fine Gael are waiting for Fianna Fáil’s convention first, slated to be in advance of the Blueshirts’ mid-September meeting.

If they figure out the direction once Martin’s party opts for three candidates, Brendan Mulroy, Lisa Chambers and Dara Calleary, Fine Gael will have to push the boat out and select four.

This will involve a ticket of three newbies and one green-eared but earnest junior minister leading the charge.

As inexperienced as it gets, this is the reality for Fine Gael strategists across the country due to the avalanche of incumbents stepping down after storied public careers.

A campaign of freshness, playing on the youth of their leader Simon Harris, may figure centrally in the party’s election campaign.

The rush to find someone in Westport will grow, and Independent Ireland’s Chris Maxwell will be licking his lips if it’s just himself and Brendan Mulroy slated to battle it out along the golden coast.

Alma Gallagher is a certainty to be the candidate in the south/east Mayo area. She covers Claremorris and Ballyhaunis through her work and residency and has ambitions of higher office after holding onto John Cribbin’s seat in June’s local elections.

Yet, manoeuvres from Patsy O’Brien could scupper her beeline to Kildare Street; the former party colleague of Cribbin possesses huge support surrounding Robeen.

A celebrity candidate has been the modus operandi of Fine Gael over the last few years, and it’s been successful too.

Dillon and Maria Walsh were both household names before they went into politics, and the latter performed strongly to retain her seat two months ago.

This opens the playing field for a non-FF/FG candidate to swoop in. Independent Mark Duffy, Aontú’s Paul Lawless and activist Saoirse McHugh have that freshness and name recognition.

The time might be right for one, if not all, to get over the line and bag a seat in Dáil Éireann.