Who is best placed to fill Mayo's rural political void?

A political analysis of the main contenders in the south and east of the five-seat constituency

by Dr. Richard Martin

When was the last time east and south Mayo had a major player in public life?

Sean Flanagan, Jim Higgins, PJ Morley, ‘Dalgan’ Lyons, John Carty, et al.

None of them really hit the heights of O'Morain, Kenny, Flynn and Ring.

The major players by and large have come from the county town.

There is no obvious successor for Ring in Westport.

It will take them a while to find someone of that calibre again.

Castlebar has potentially two senior cabinet ministers in Deputy Dillon and Senator Chambers.

Over 3,000 votes left the town in 2020.

The town won’t be so foolish the second time around. Castlebar was always a dual mandate town, as it should be.

It is, after all, the municipal and commercial centre of the county.

But who are the main contenders to fill the void in east and south Mayo?

GERRY MURRAY (SINN FÉIN)

Councillor Gerry Murray is the sole SF representative in the council chamber. He is a consistent poll topper. I first heard of him years ago, mentioned in a Christy Moore song.

Christy found himself at Knock Airport and retired to Murray’s pub in Charlestown to figure out what was going on. Did he see an airport or the Virgin Mary?

Originally elected to the council as a member of FF in 1999, he defected to SF in the early noughties for reasons that were never made clear.

Some in FF weren’t happy that he was elected under the FF banner and then switched sides.

We saw something similar happen after the recent local elections in Castlebar.

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.

Nonetheless, Councillor Murray is 'a major player' in the council chamber. There is a depth and sophistication to his approach to politics.

A member of the FG party once confided in me that he avoids any direct confrontation with Murray in the chamber. That's because he has full command of his brief.

He knows what his job entails, and he has the intelligence and ability to legislate accordingly. No interest in weak populist politics.

He leaves canvassing and funerals for others. In my view, he possesses an innate intelligence and wisdom that come from long years in public life. Murray generously ceded 60 per cent of the electoral area to his running mate John Sheahan in the local elections. Not many would do that.

John Sheahan lost out by one paltry vote. Twelve ballot papers weren’t stamped correctly, which would’ve swung it for SF. Small margins.

When SF were flying high at 36% in the polls, it was a virtual certainty that Murray would be elected to the Dail along with RCW. Currently, they are 18%. Their support has halved over the past two years, even though they are the main opposition party.

SF at heart is a pro-equality and pro-immigration party, but vast swathes of their working class base across the island are anti-immigration.

The working class vote has been split on this issue, and as SF’s graph in the opinion polls has trended downwards at an alarming velocity, the rise in support for independents and anti-immigration candidates has surged upwards.

Personally, I feel as things stand, SF will do well to return one candidate in a five-seater.

RCW and Gerry Murray are both geographically based on the periphery of the county. They don’t have deep roots in the major urban centres.

My gut tells me he will poll strongly and come close to jumping the last fence, but he might just pull up at the last. Close, but no cigar.

Five years ago, the tide became a flood for SF, and they didn’t run enough candidates. Now it’s becoming a drought. That’s politics. If he doesn’t make it, his transfers might bring RCW home.

PAUL LAWLESS (AONTÚ)

Paul Lawless was recently elected to the council as an Aontú representative.

He’s young, handsome, intelligent, charismatic and a rising star in Mayo politics. He ran for the GE in 2020 and received 2,574 FPVs. Furthermore, he will poll stronger in the upcoming GE.

Paul has been quite vocal about immigration in east Mayo.

Prior to the local elections, he organised public meetings in Knock in protest at the Belmont Hotel (which is in a state of dereliction) being used as an IPAS centre.

He felt that there should have been ’community consultation’, whatever that means.

I’ve recently bought a house in Castlebar.

I didn’t ‘consult’ any of my neighbours, and they didn’t ‘consult’ me before the purchase. It’s none of their business.

Paul needs 6,000 plus FPVs to be elected in the GE. I can’t see that happening. Gerry Murray and Patsy O’Brien will poll stronger.

When Paul is eliminated, his transfers will give them both a massive shot in the arm.

FG has to run three candidates, at least.

Dillon is a certainty. They have to run a candidate in Ballina. And they have to run a candidate in east or south to curb Patsy O’Brien.

The FG director of elections is Darragh Loftus from Castlebar.

Long, careful hours of discussion and analysis will have taken place, but FG know that with careful vote management and candidate selection they should return two candidates to the Dáil.

PATSY O'BRIEN (INDEPENDENT)

Councillor Patsy O’Brien recently announced he is running as an independent.

He is a consistent poll-topper in the local elections. This year he got 2,738 first preference votes in the Claremorris area.

The Roundfort representative previously was a member of FG. He was removed as a Fine Gael candidate in the last senate election and left the party.

But FG is now worried about O’Brien. He is charismatic.

He has a huge personal vote, and he will hurt FG.

Ten of the 30 councillors in the council are independent. In a five-seater, there’s room for at least one independent.

FG knows he will hurt them; that’s why it’s vital to limit the damage. A strong candidate is needed in south Mayo or east Mayo to stop the haemorrhaging of blue votes. They have two options.

ALMA GALLAGHER (FINE GAEL)

Alma Gallagher was elected to Mayo County Council for the first time in last June's local elections, the first woman candidate to win a seat in the Claremorris electoral area.

Her victory came about from long years of community work and activism for the FG party.

Her loyalty is not in question. She has made her way the hard way, which means she will be a very ’credible’ candidate. Also, she was a founder member of Young FG.

I witnessed her maiden speech in the council chamber. I came away hugely impressed. She has the ability to make the transition into the Dáil. If she is on the ticket, the FG machine in east Mayo will give her a massive push for home.

The Ballyhaunis woman might do it. But my gut tells me that Patsy and Gerry Murray will be ahead of her from the first count onwards.

She’s been in public life a matter of months; they’ve been there for years. That’s a huge factor.

On elimination, her transfers would give Patsy a massive push for home.

MARTINA JENNINGS (FINE GAEL)

Martina Jennings is the CEO of Mayo Roscommon Hospice. She hails from Hollymount area. She would be a major coup for FG.

In my opinion, if her name is on the ticket for FG in the upcoming GE, she will be elected. She will not be contesting the party’s selection convention on September 15, but she is expected be added at a later day by party HQ.

The Mayo Roscommon Hospice is a state-of-the-art facility and has touched the lives of so many.

She’s clearly a very able, charismatic and intelligent woman.

A modern-day Monsignor Horan.

FG likes ‘celebrity’ candidates. She could beat Patsy on FPVs.

I’m not sure Minister Dillon or Senator Lisa Chambers would love to see her coming into the mix.

Given that she would be such a strong candidate, she could potentially hurt them both.

Bottom line: if her name is on the ballot paper, she will hurt every candidate in the county.

It’s all to play for. That’s why it’s so exciting.

(Dr. Richard Martin is a regular columnist with The Connaught Telegraph).