A make-or-break scenario facing Mayo's leading GAA sides

by Martin Carney, Mayo's foremost GAA columnist

ROUND three games in the group stages of this year’s senior football championship are certain to bring contrasting fortunes.

Already three teams, by my reckoning, have made it safely to the last eight. Westport, Ballina and Breaffy know that irrespective of how they or others perform they are already firmly ensconced in the quarterfinals.

That Westport and Ballina are in the same group means their clash will simply decide which of them finishes in top position.

The result of the other game in the group between Balla and Mayo Gaels will determine who ends up in a relegation playoff. As for the winner here, their season comes to an end.

Before a ball is ever thrown in at the start of any year, achievable and realistic targets are set. These will vary from club to club.

Those who tasted victory in the recent past or, for that matter, with a tradition of success will readily set goals of retaining or regaining the holy grail.

I’m sure that Ballina Stephenites and Castlebar Mitchels, with a combined total of 68 titles, 2022 champions Westport and 10-time winners Knockmore look at winning the Moclair Cup as top of their agendas.

Breaffy, having contested the final on five occasions in the last 12 years, will still see the big prize as an achievable goal.

With his dominating presence, Aidan O’Shea at the moment remains the leading light. Coupled to the infusion of new blood in attack and making light of the departure of four defenders from last year’s county final team, it’s possible the dream could still become a reality.

It’s no coincidence then, going into round three, that three from the five referenced have booked their places in the last eight.

With the other two, uncertainty still surrounds their fate. Castlebar Mitchels and Knockmore, among the fancied few before a ball was kicked, have been slow to get into their stride.

County champions in ’20 and ’21, it was generally expected they’d be serious contenders, but Knockmore’s opening day defeat to Ballaghaderreen raised eyebrows. Few saw this coming.

Having watched them dispose of the Claremorris challenge in the last round, they looked a team that had recovered any lost confidence from that opening day setback.

Defensively they shut off space to deny Claremorris an opportunity to unleash their forward potential; David McHale and Nathan Armstrong led the way here.

Further afield, while getting the expected response from Kevin McLoughlin and Aidan Orme, it was the display from Caolan Hopkins that made the difference.

Building on the one goal and four points he scored against Ballaghaderreen, this time he registered seven, five of them from play. His emergence as a scoring threat is one of the positives in their season.

Still not guaranteed second place, Knockmore must beat Belmullet to achieve this. The Erris men, to date, haven’t lived up to expectations and another defeat will definitely put them into relegation trouble.

Without the O’Donoghues the last day, though competitive, they struggled to register on the scoreboard.

Ryan’s absence to date has severely, and understandably, had a negative impact. If he plays at the weekend, Belmullet will surely find that scoring ingredient that was missing against Ballaghaderreen.

Knockmore know what’s to come. The severity of their task will depend on whether or not Ryan O'Donoghue is fit to start for Belmullet. It would still be a brave call to bet against Knockmore.

What many forget when they are critical of Castlebar Mitchels is that the team is, for the most part, a young and inexperienced group.

With the possible exception of Rory Byrne, Neil Douglas, Donie Newcombe, Johnny Maughan and James Durcan, most of the others have just recently graduated to senior football.

Take the cases of John McMonagle and Sean Morahan. Both prominent and influential, they are nonetheless relatively new to senior ranks. Even county player Donnacha McHugh is just out of the Under 21 grade.

Acclimatising to the demands, rhythms and pressures takes time, and many in the team are taking longer than hoped to make the adjustment.

Grouped with Ballyhaunis, Garrymore and Charlestown, it’s still unclear whether or not they will qualify for the last eight. Even Charlestown, were they to beat Garrymore, could still qualify.

Like the majority, I’d still back Mitchels to beat Ballyhaunis in Hollymount on Saturday.

Granted, the east Mayo men showed fine form in unexpectedly taking care of the Charlestown challenge in round two. Inspired by the performances of Keith Higgins and Jack Coyne, their second-half display has put them back in the mix.

Last year, the east Mayo lads pushed Mitchels all the way before losing by two points. Forewarned, then, is forearmed, and Mitchels are more than capable of raising their game.

With an overall greater attacking intent and by using Donnacha McHugh in a more advanced position, they are good enough to find a way through. For a club of its unmatched size and resources, anything other than making the last eight would be a major disappointment.

Five clubs – Ballina Stephenites, Castlebar Mitchels, Ballintubber, Knockmore and Westport – have won the county title since 2013.

The last do so from outside this group was Ballaghaderreen. Their third title overall in 2012 was reward for a club that has kept the green and red flag flying in circumstances that have been difficult at times.

Their opening day home win over Knockmore served notice that something was brewing.

Coming home after their odyssey to Belmullet with points in the bag was a fitting bounty. Under the management of former county minor manager Tomás Morley and inspired by the memory of John O’Mahony, the border men have defied predictions.

Despite all this, they could still fall short of progressing were they to lose to Claremorris while at the same time Knockmore get the better of Belmullet. This would leave three on equal points. Matters, then, would come down to scoring difference.

Aside from this, maintaining the winning habit is important though. Fortified with this target, players grow in confidence and self-belief. Doubts dispel.

It gives encouragement to all associated with the team and an opportunity to players like Matthew Connor to further enhance his reputation.

Already David McBrien has assumed a pivotal presence in the team. Collectively they have played with great spirit and organisation.

Their tie with Claremorris affords everyone an opportunity to take matters a step further. A level of uncertainty remains though; Claremorris will be no pushover.

Across all grades the upcoming results at the weekend will outline the roadmap for the remainder of the season.

Taking senior level alone, eight will progress to the quarterfinals, four will contest relegation playoffs and for the remainder the season draws to a premature end.

Outcomes will vary, but an exciting programme is sure to unfold.