Can Fine Gael finally get its act together in Mayo?

by Dr. Richard Martin

LOTS of ladies have danced in the TF Royal over the years.

There is only one truism when it comes to dancing in that fabled ballroom.

From Roy Orbison in the early '60s to the Wolfe Tones in the present day. You can only dance with the ladies who are dancing in the hall.

Right now, ahead of the upcoming general election, Fine Gael are dancing with too many candidates.

FG can only run a maximum of three candidates if they are to maximise their return from their vote share. Running four is insanity.

They need a candidate in north Mayo. They need a candidate in the county town - which they have - and they need a candidate in south Mayo.

Martina Jennings of Mayo Roscommon Hospice fame will be added to the FG ticket by party HQ in the upcoming weeks.

Councillor John O'Hara from Bonniconlon, representing north Mayo, Minister Alan Dillon representing Castlebar and Martina Jennings sweeping south Mayo is the optimal ticket for FG.

With the opinion polls as they stand, and with proper vote management, FG should return two candidates to the Dáil and push close for a third. In the polls representing rural Ireland, FG are currently at 27%, FF at 22% and SF at 18%. FG were at 35% in 2011 when they returned four TDs to the Dáil.

If those poll figures remain the same over the next few weeks, it's within the bounds of possibility that they could return three TDs.

The FG director of elections is Darragh Loftus. It should be his decision and his alone who is on the ticket and who isn't.

Currently, FG have two candidates on the ticket for the upcoming GE. The incumbent Minister Dillon and Kiera Keogh, who was recently a candidate in the local elections in the Westport district.

Keogh was not elected on that occasion but gave a good account of herself as a first-time candidate.

The question could be asked as to why Alma Gallagher and Donna Sheridan, who were both returned to the council chamber, are not on the ticket?

Donna Sheridan has contested two local elections successfully. She is the first female cathaoirleach of the Castlebar district and so in many respects she is a trailblazer and role model for women in politics.

She has earned the right to be on the ticket based on her electoral success.

So why isn't she? Location. She's from Balla. Her presence on the ticket could potentially hurt Minister Dillon.

Councillor Peter Flynn was the successful FG candidate in Westport. Surely then he should be Ring's successor? He has a proven track record of electoral success. He is relatively young. An accountant by training.

He ticks the boxes.

Keogh is Ring's chosen successor. He wants a successor in his home town.

But will his fabled power, charisma and personal vote get her over the line in the GE? I can’t see it’s going to happen.

She won’t be elected in the upcoming GE and her presence on the ticket will only ensure the FG vote share is split.

It is Deputy Ring's prerogative to stand up and fight for his town and district but not to make unrealistic demands on his own party.

He spoke at the convention and told the delegates that no-one gave him a chance when he won the by-election in 1994.

Kiera Keogh, he said, will become the next TD in Westport.

However, if we were to look at the situation rationally, Deputy Ring entered public life in 1979. He was elected onto the Westport Urban Council and made his remarkable journey from there.

He toiled for 15 long years and had two failed GE attempts before his historic victory in 1994.

History has shown us time and again that candidates who are parachuted into the electoral arena and successful are 'celebrity' candidates. Nina Carberry, Alan Dillon, Mairead McGuinness, John O'Mahony, et al.

They all had huge profile through sport and national media. Kiera Keogh doesn't tick any of those boxes.

In the case of Minister Dillon, he is an icon of Mayo GAA in light of his achievements for club and county.

Even at that he only 'just' got over the line in the GE of 2020.

Minister Dillon and Kiera Keogh were both proposed and seconded on the night. Deputy Ring proposed Kiera Keogh. He made a passionate speech and a ringing endorsement.

He told the delegates: 'Take a chance on her. She’s a worker. She has ability. She's capable.'

Personally, I feel it's time Castlebar stopped propping up the Westport Ring machine. We did it in '94 and we've been doing it ever since.

An area less than a square mile surrounding Mayo County Council buildings is full of dereliction and decay. The old swimming pool, the Order of Malta, the Imperial Hotel and Ellison Street.

Minister Dillon spoke after being proposed and seconded by Finian Burke and Martina Calvey.

He has grown into the suit. Entering political life is daunting. He acknowledged that at the start of his speech.

Like his Oireachtas colleagues Lisa Chambers and Darragh Calleary, his convention speech was mature, reflective and devoid of populist aphorisms.

He acknowledged his colleague Deputy Ring and paid respectful tribute to his remarkable career in politics. He congratulated Alma Gallagher and Donna Sheridan for their groundbreaking election results.

The speech was rhythmic. It had flow and cadence.

His performance during the PAC committee last year demonstrated that he has matured as a politician over the last few years.

He will be elected in the next GE. Will he top the poll? Calleary is more likely. Reaching the quota is a safer bet.

The bottom line is he is a worker. Even his greatest detractors can't deny that he has a super work ethic.

Like Senator Lisa Chambers, he has the right age profile for career advancement.

Over the past year there has been a mass exodus from the FG parliamentary party. Huge brand names have announced their retirement from frontline politics. Now he is a junior minister, soon he will be a senior minister.

It's time FG got serious and finalised their ticket. There’s no room for dog dancing in frontline national politics.

Minister Dillon and Martina Jennings are a solid double for the GE. I'd keep them at short odds. If FG fail to return at least two TDs in the upcoming GE, it would be a disastrous result.

The FG convention was pleasantly chaotic and pointless. No vote. Ticket isn't finalised.

The big day is looming around the corner.

Will FG get their act together before then? It remains to be seen.

(Dr. Richard Martin is a regular columnist with The Connaught Telegraph).