New allies set to share Mayo's five seats in election

by Dr. Richard Martin

I called into a friend of mine in the maths department in the University of Galway in September. I've recently returned to the university to do the PME (Teaching Masters).

I know Jim a long time, over 20 years in fact. He asked me if I was interested in doing some tutorial work this semester. He was struggling to find a tutor. I said sound. No bother.

The course is Measure Theory. It's a final year course in pure maths. I do the tutorials every Tuesday and Wednesday evenings.

On Wednesday evening as I drove home along the Curragh line listening to Classic FM I started to day dream about Monkeys typing Shakespeare.

It is a provable fact that if an immortal tireless Monkey were to sit in front of a special typewriter with just two keys 0 and 1 and pound at them randomly over and over and over, the Monkey would produce the entire works of Shakespeare in a binary string not just once but infinitely often.

A binary string is just a series of 0's and 1's i.e 100101010101.

When I hit Headford the day dream shifted. Between Headford and Ballinrobe I started to reflect on the latest political drama in our county.

FG had just announced that Martina Jennings and Mark Duffy were both on the ticket for the upcoming GE. FG now have four candidates in the upcoming election.

Our friend the Monkey would have fun writing about this. He might be pounding on his typewriter for a while. FG are buoyant in the polls at 25%. SF and FF are both at 19% and 20% respectively.

In a five seater FG would see anything less than two seats as a total disaster. But can they get three over the line? This is where it gets interesting.

Minister Dillon will make it. He's an incumbent candidate. He's worked hard. His office is a working office and the bread and butter work is being done.

The FG team/family in the county town are all on the same page. Councillor Deere got a massive endorsement from the public in the recent local elections, but that too was an endorsement of Minister Dillon.

So will Councillor Duffy make it? He's a poll topper. It was a massive coup for FG to get him on board. But, the bottom line is he needs FG and they need him.

If he wants to advance his political career, he needed to join a major party. It's well documented that his background is FF but that's a closed shop in Ballina.

Minister Calleary won't be going anywhere anytime soon. From a pragmatic point of view it was the right choice.

His FPV at the recent local elections was 2,328. Councillor O'Hara just pipped him with a FPV of 2,391. The key to Councillor Duffy making it over the line into Leinster House is getting the local FG grassroots organisation on board. A simple addition of O'Hara and Duffy's vote is just short of 5,000 votes.

Councillor Duffy needs to be at the 8,000 FPV vote mark to make it over the line. I think he'll do it. Ballina are crying out for youth and energy. I expect Ballina to back Calleary and Duffy in their droves.

So what about Martina Jennings?

This is also a major coup. I look at things objectively without bias. At least I try to. If she is ahead of Patsy O'Brien on the first count, she will make it. Patsy will elect her.

The Mayo Roscommon Hospice is a wonderful facility. She has been an integral part of its success. The people of Mayo appreciate and respect that.

The Connellys in Hollymount are behind her. That's vital. Having good GAA connections is vital in a constituency like Mayo. She is from a farming background. Not a bad thing in a rural county. Farmers like candidates who understand and listen to their concerns.

The battle between herself and Alan Dillon will be interesting. There would be no love lost between Noel Connelly and Dillon after the managerial coup in 2015.

The Connellys will put in a relentless campaign for her.

Caught between Hollymount and Castlebar is the Burke Dynasty. Senator Burke and Councillor Burke both canvassed for Michelle Mulherin in the last GE. Who will they canvass for this time?

Cyril Burke was the rightful heir to the Kenny throne. Some feel he was passed over. Politics is a funny game. The Burkes might have to butter both sides of the bread and wait to see who comes out on top.

Personally, I think Martina Jennings will make it. She's transfer friendly. The people of south Mayo want a serious politician. Patsy is a great vote-getter but if you're not part of a party you can't deliver.

Ballinrobe needs a bypass. The Claremorris to Tuam railway needs to be sorted. FG delivered four in 2011. That will never happen again. But with careful partitioning of the county, they could deliver three.

The two FF candidates will both be returned. The addition of south Mayo was a huge boost to Lisa Chambers. Places like Cong was always fertile FF territory. South Mayo always backed Pee Flynn and brought him over the line.

In the end I think it will be two FF and three FG.

Rose Conway-Walsh is under huge pressure in Ballina and Castlebar. A woman with integrity, intelligence and a huge heart, but politics doesn't do sentiment.

Dr. Jerry Cowley topped the poll in 2002 and was never returned to the Dáil thereafter. Through no fault of her own, the working class base has been split on the issue of immigration.

She has never buckled or compromised on her beliefs. She believes in equality for all and I must say she is as sincere and genuine a person as one could hope to meet.

If she is to lose her seat it would be a sad day for the county and the Oireachtas, but the transfers between the civil war parties as the counts progress will do untold damage.

The appointment of Darragh Loftus as the FG director of elections was an inspired choice. There's still a lot to play for.

The proverbial fat lady is just clearing her throat. The story is still in flux and my friend the Monkey is still typing!

Who knows what's in store over the next few weeks!

(Dr. Richard Martin is a regular columnist with The Conaught Telegraph).