Masterplan by FF and FG to seek a Mayo clean sweep

by Caoimhin Rowland

The crystal balls are out, and Mayo is gearing up for what could be one of the most unpredictable general elections in modern times.

Everyone seems to have a different take on which of the incumbents are safe, but, in reality, none are. With 13 candidates already declared at the time of writing, it's anyone’s game.

One of the few certainties is how closely Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be scrutinised in relation to each other.

After five years of governing together with the unique rotating Taoiseach arrangement, this election will be the first where both parties are viewed almost as one entity.

The opposition, and indeed the public, may paint them with the same brush.

All eyes will be on the leaders of both parties to stand apart, but whether that involves subtle digs, personal attacks or clever spin remains to be seen.

In a general election, anything goes.

Fianna Fáil, historically seen as the traditional party of the small farmer, will square off against Fine Gael, typically the pro-business, socially liberal option of the two.

Yet after five years of coalition and a further spell in a confidence and supply arrangement, to quote Donald Tusk, it’s clear that more unites them than divides them.

Perhaps that’s what Fianna Fáil had in mind when their new slogan, ‘Moving Forward Together’ (strikingly similar to the DUP’s), was leaked from a printing warehouse.

Ireland may have come a long way, but there were surely a few chuckles from the opposition - and some red faces within Fianna Fáil. Borrowing from the class clown’s homework is one thing; copying the village idiot is another.

After three years in government - and four years before that under a confidence-and-supply agreement - the line between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s policies has blurred, especially on budgetary matters.

Are they really all that different anymore? More than half of voters believe them to be two sides of the same coin, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be in power.

Missteps are inevitable as the campaign heats up, tempers flare, and heated phone calls ensue. But whether Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will team up again remains almost inevitable.

Fine Gael likes to boast of its economic recovery track record, budget surpluses and citing corporation tax intakes, while Fianna Fáil prides itself on educational matters, notably a brief of theirs under Norma Foley.

However, Fine Gael is keen to muscle in on that territory too.

Look no further than their leader, who garnered praise during his tenure as Minister for Higher Education, especially when he criticised the ‘snobbery’ surrounding third-level education - a bold stance from a party often seen as elitist in Dublin circles.

Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil is still seen as rural, catering to local, ‘parish pump’ politics.

The partnership between the two parties has been smoother than expected, thanks in part to their ability to shift blame onto the Green Party, which is often the scapegoat for unpopular decisions.

However, Fianna Fáil may suffer more in rural constituencies due to their association with the Greens, especially with the rise of parties like Aontú and Independent Ireland.

As seen in the local elections, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are already benefiting from vote transfers between each other, despite the absence of a formal alliance.

This is good news for strategists, particularly for Fine Gael, which is fielding double the number of candidates as Fianna Fáil, with a geographically strategic spread.

Recent opinion polls show both parties plateauing at around 45% combined - not enough for a full majority but enough to keep them in power.

Worryingly for Labour and the Social Democrats, their support has been trending downward, but a few seats of theirs will help government formation you’d suspect post-Christmas.

On current polling, it won’t be the opposition that scrambles into power.

Recent scandals have rocked Sinn Féin, and further polling may spell another setback for Mary Lou McDonald.

Fine Gael, meanwhile, faces its own incumbency problem. Losing 51% of its outgoing TDs will make seat retention difficult. However, this plays into their leader’s narrative of a new, more energetic Fine Gael.

Deputy Michael Ring recently commented that “where a party is running a single candidate, it’s a sign they’ve thrown in the towel and have no ambition for the party.”

This could be seen as a jab at Sinn Féin in Mayo, who seem increasingly likely to forgo running their sole county councillor, Gerry Murray, and instead focus on Rose Conway-Walsh to avoid splitting their vote.