How the general election is likely to unfold in Mayo
by Dr. Richard Martin
The political cuckoo has broke into song and the general election madness has started. The clock is ticking and the countdown has begun.
The electorate will go to the polls on November 29.
This is going to be as fiercely contested an election as was ever fought in this county. Five vacancies, seven serious contenders and three outlier candidates.
Chambers and Calleary from FF. Dillon, Duffy and Jennings from FG. RCW and Murray from SF and Patsy as an independent. The outliers are Steven Kerr, Councillor Paul Lawless and Councillor Chris Maxwell.
Currently the opinion polls are at 22% for FG, 21% for FF and 17% for SF.
A sensible logical inference from the most recent poll will be that one candidate will be elected from each party. Most likely Dillon from FG, Calleary from FF and RCW from SF. They're all cabinet material.
Calleary reached the quota the last time. RCW was elected with a landslide. Dillon scraped over the line the last time, but will reach the quota the next time. The competition is such that no-one will be elected on the first count.
This most recent poll does not accurately reflect the current state of political flux in Mayo. Nationally, in the west/northwest rural constituencies FG and FF are even more popular.
SF enjoys its greatest support in large urban areas where the housing and rental crisis is more severely felt. The support for SF in Mayo is less than the national average.
It's not a virtual certainty RCW will be re-elected. She's back in the pack with the rest fighting for survival. SF got 3,000 votes in the last GE in Castlebar. That won't happen the next time.
Dillon is stronger, a lot stronger. He's running a working office. The bread and butter constituency work is being done. He's approachable and likeable. Ger Deere topped the poll in the recent local elections. It was an overwhelming endorsement of the Dillon office.
SF were blown out of it in the locals. They didn't challenge and feature in any meaningful capacity.
If Stephen Kerr had run in the GE in 2020, he would not have broken 300 votes. Now, he has a huge social media profile. His stance on government immigration policies have catapulted him into the political spotlight.
He can no longer be ignored. He won't be elected but he will pull a sizeable vote. He could pull between 3,000 and 5,000 votes. But at whose expense?
He will hurt all candidates but he will do untold damage to RCW. The working class base is totally divided on this issue and the rise in the support for independents correlates with the fall in support for SF.
The other two outlier candidates will also impact RCW. Chris Maxwell is of FF stock, now flying under the Independent Ireland banner. Independent Ireland is a refuge for the respectable anti-government, anti-establishment vote.
Councillor Maxwell made headlines by bringing a bag of turf into the council chamber and demanding the right to throw it into the fireplace on a dark November night.
He's demanding a right which he already has. It's perfectly legal to burn turf, just as it's perfectly legal to next our next gulp of air or drive on the left hand side of the road.
Here is what the legislation says. "Can we continue to cut and burn turf? Yes. The new regulations will not prohibit or restrict the cutting, burning and gifting of turf by those who hold traditional turf-cutting rights."
The recent publicity opportunity within the council chamber got a lot of mileage. Patsy made sure he jumped into the video to shout and holler for the poor beleaguered people of rural Ireland who've been forgotten by the central government.
Councillor Maxwell got 1,700 FPV in the local elections. It's highly likely and probable he will reach at least 3,000 FPV in the GE. He will hurt FF and RCW equally. Whether, his vote comes back to both sides on transfers is debatable.
Councillor Lawless received a FPV of 1,177 in the recent local elections. He's based in the Claremorris area. His FPV in the 2020 GE was 2,574. It would be a sensible presumption to assume that he will do better this time around.
I can see him reaching the 4,000 FPV mark. His populist stance on immigration has served him well and will continue to serve him well in the coming weeks.
While I don't agree with him, over 4,000 people will disagree with me in a few weeks time. That's democracy.
The three outliers will take 12,000 FPV on the first count. It will ensure that no-one is elected on the first count, particularly RCW.
This time two years ago SF were looking at getting a minimum of two candidates over the line at the next GE, now they have to scrap and fight to retain what they have.
It's not fair, it's not RCW's fault, but that's the way the political cookie crumbles. She rode the wave of the populist vote in 2020 and now it has boomeranged against her.
If we look at the seven candidates and the geography of the county, there is a seat in Ballina between Duffy and Calleary. There is a seat in Castlebar between Dillon and Chambers and there is a seat between Patsy and Martina Jennings.
In south Mayo, Patsy will elect Martina or Martina will elect Patsy. Whoever falls at the fence will push the other for home.
William Sears from the Neale was the last TD from south Mayo. He lost his seat in 1927. Just shy of 100 years later, it looks like the south of the county will have direct representation at last in the national chamber. Martina will come out on top there.
In those three key areas there are three winners and three losers.
There will be two seats left then. Add RCW to the mix and you have four very, very strong candidates going for two places.
It will be a long night in the TF. The total valid poll will be between roughly 70,000 and 75,000 votes. That means the likely greatest bound for the quota will be 11,667 and the likely least upper bound is 12,501.
With no-one elected on the first count the elimination process will proceed.
The question RCW will be asking herself is, is she transfer friendly with Kerr, Lawless and Maxwell? Together, that trio could pull a 12,000 FPV share.
She won't get much from the civil war parties. Her FPV in 2020 was 14,663 and her FPV in 2016 was 6,414. A sensible projection of her FPV would be 10,500. Split the difference between 2016 and 2020.
But, something tells me the three lads will do untold damage. Her actual FPV is likely to be around the 8,000 mark. She's back in the mix.
Like Kenny in 2002 it could come down to a handful of votes. Where will Micheal Ring's vote go? That's 14,000 votes. Kiera Keogh will do well to get half of them.
His vote was a party vote and a personal vote. He was 'independent' FG. It's fair to assume then that 7,000 will stay with FG and then 7,000 will be up for grabs.
That's what might save RCW. Who would've thought it? A blueshirt saving the career of a Shinner? It's a great little country.
Personally, I can't wait. Tommy Joe Prendergast of Community Radio Castlebar (CRCfm) has his seat booked for the TF balcony and his suit pressed for months in advance.
Aidan Crowley will be his usual dapper self with the microphone in hand, giddy with excitement. I love nothing more than sitting down with the pair of them.
You can't prepare for Crowley. He's too clever. He will catch you out one way or another. Great characters. Great fun. Roll on the 29th.