Mayo race for five Dáil seats offers wide range of possibilities
by Caoimhin Rowland
The volatility of the Mayo electorate and its taste for fresh faces can’t be overstated.
This is a place that has, rightly or wrongly, long felt it hasn’t received a fair shake - a sentiment simmering within a county that often drums out a tune of self-pity and neglect.
Ahead of this election, the incumbents are bracing for their report cards.
Remember, it wasn’t that long ago that Mayo was grumbling about a complete lack of ministers, only to now have junior ministers jostling for survival.
Ballina is a town that can be fickle with its political affections, as former Fianna Fáil Minister of State Dr. Tom Moffatt knows all too well.
In 2002, Moffatt got the boot when the Mayo electorate swapped him out for Dr. Jerry Cowley, the latest doc on the block from Mulranny.
Dr. Cowley, however, didn’t last long himself and found himself promptly voted out in the next ballot.
The trend here is obvious: Mayo loves a newcomer, especially one that shines a bit brighter, at least at first glance. The appeal of fresh faces has often meant that even big national names can be unceremoniously nudged aside.
Case in point, John O’Mahony, the so-called celebrity candidate, who romped home in 2007 in a poll where Fianna Fáil were the real winners.
But this time, with five seats up for grabs in Mayo, it’s anyone’s game.
Two new TDs are practically guaranteed, making this perhaps the most tantalising election for political watchers in this county in years.
As ever, local issues are simmering beneath the surface.
In Ballina, for instance, discussions around a potential new IPAS facility will undoubtedly dominate early debates, especially with Councillor Duffy coming in fresh off a brush with the Twin Trees protests earlier in the year.
Despite fears that those protests would sink his votes, Duffy emerged unscathed.
Duffy might well find himself in the company of other newcomers who’ve benefited from a big name Fine Gael councillor glow, much like Michelle Mulherin in 2011, who surfed in on a Fine Gael wave.
More recently, Rose Conway-Walsh took a similar route with the famous Sinn Féin surge in 2016, but now her party is bolstered with extra fire power, with experienced councillor Gerry Murray entering the fray.
Sinn Féin is banking on a ‘Goldilocks’ strategy this time around, convinced that they’ve found just the right balance in candidate selection after experimenting with too few in 2020 and too many in recent locals.
As we head into election season, voters’ minds remain on bread-and-butter issues. Many people, despite talk of record government surpluses, are still feeling the pinch.
Everyday expenses - unexpected car repairs, household appliances breaking down, and of course the enduring issue of housing - are chipping away at their finances, meaning many are left struggling pay slip to pay slip.
Fianna Fáil’s Tánaiste might tout the same old promises, talking up water infrastructure, energy grid investment, and increasing housing supply, but cheap talk on finally realising major upgrades to vital components of Irish life will rankle coming from a party leader who has been in Leinster House since before Italia ‘90.
Then there’s the question of Martina Jennings, a fresh face expected to make waves from Claremorris to Charlestown, who could very well clinch a seat for her region.
Meanwhile, Duffy and Alan Dillon might find themselves squaring off for the electorate’s favour.
Dillon, now a Minister of State, was once the unblemished new kid on the block himself in 2020, transferring votes smoothly thanks to his lack of baggage and esteemed GAA career.
But with a full term under his belt, he’s got a record to defend now, including rising homelessness numbers alongside a record surplus.
His team will undoubtedly push the latter narrative, leaning on his cross-party appeal and the work he’s done locally since stepping off the football pitch.
Mayo’s trends hold true: Fine Gael’s dominance remains unmatched, with Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin now largely aiming for parity.
Sinn Féin has notably doubled down, with two candidates in the running to rival Fianna Fáil’s grip on the constituency.
This doubling up has sparked speculation about the final seat allotment.
The likeliest scenario?
At least two Fine Gael TDs (anyone’s guess as to which), one Fianna Fáil, Rose Conway-Walsh for Sinn Féin, and then an outlier - perhaps Chris Maxwell, Paul Lawless, Patsy O’Brien or Stephen Kerr.
And yet, in true Mayo fashion, the county might just pull the rug out from under our predictions.
Fine Gael’s third candidate elected could end up costing their coalition partners, Fianna Fáil, a seat.
In the wildest twist, even heavyweights like Senator Chambers or Minister Dara Calleary might find themselves sidelined.
One thing is clear: it’s going to be a rollercoaster.
And with so much time on the clock, every possibility is still on the table.