POLL: Lisa Chambers on course to re-claim Dáil seat
By Caoimhín Rowland
Fine Gael look poised to claim two out of five seats in Mayo, according to the latest TG4/IPSOS B&A constituency poll, while Castlebar-based Senator Lisa Chambers is in with a strong shout of reclaiming the seat she lost in 2020.
Minister of State Alan Dillon is firmly on track to reach the quota, polling at 17%. Dillon is expected to be joined by Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh, who is sitting comfortably at 13%. Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary (11%) and Lisa Chambers (10%) are also well-positioned to be elected.
Former Independent Councillor Mark Duffy, now running under the Fine Gael banner, is tipped to secure a seat. With 10% support, Duffy’s transfer-friendly profile could prove critical in the later counts.
The race for the final seat remains wide open, however, with Fine Gael’s Keira Keogh (8%), slightly off her north Mayo colleague Duffy, and Independent Patsy O’Brien (7%) both in contention.
However, a key talking point from the poll is the underwhelming performance of Martina Jennings, the Mayo Roscommon Hospice CEO, who trails at just 4%. Jennings’ result will undoubtedly raise questions about Fine Gael’s strategy in the constituency as the party fields a crowded slate of candidates.
Paul Lawless of Aontú also registered 7%, while Sinn Féin’s Gerry Murray polled at 5%. Among smaller parties and independents, no candidate crossed the 2% mark, suggesting dominance of the larger parties in Mayo.
This latest poll reinforces Fine Gael’s strong position in its traditional heartland but also proves the growing competitiveness of Sinn Féin, whose candidate Conway-Walsh has emerged as a formidable challenger in the region.
Fianna Fáil party members will be delighted bringing both of their candidates across the line.
With the election date looming, Mayo’s results are shaping up to be a bellwether for the broader national contest as the four candidate strategy has drawn national attention, as will the performance of Patsy O'Brien.
Here is the list from the TG4/IPSOS B&A constituency poll:
5 seater Mayo constituency
- Alan Dillon (Fine Gael) – 17%
- Rose Conway-Walsh (Sinn Féin) – 13%
- Dara Calleary (Fianna Fáil) – 11%
- Lisa Chambers (Fianna Fáil) – 10%
- Mark Duffy (Fine Gael) – 10%
- Keira Keogh (Fine Gael) – 8%
- Patsy O’Brien (Non-Party) – 7%
- Paul Lawless (Aontú) – 7%
- Gerry Murray (Sinn Féin) – 5%
- Martina Jennings (Fine Gael) – 4%
- Joe Daly (People Before Profit) – 2%
- Stephen Kerr (Non-Party) – 2%
- Mícheál ‘Boxty’ Ó Conaill (Green Party) – 2%
- Chris Maxwell (Independent Ireland) – 2%
- Gerry Loftus (Non-Party) – 1%
- Sean Forkin (Non-Party) – No data available.
Methodology
This TG4/Ipsos B&A poll was conducted over the phone on Monday and Tuesday of this week (18th and 19thNovember). A sample of 539 attaches a margin of error of about plus or minus four percentage points, so a degree of caution needs to be exercised when interpreting the poll findings.