Old guard holds aces in Mayo's five-seat election challenge
A NEW era in Mayo public life is set to unfold.
Over 113,000 people across the county are entitled on Friday to shape what that landscape will look like over the next five years.
That's a significant increase from the total electorate of 98,165 in the last general election on February 7, 2020, due to a rise in population, the return of an extensive area of south Mayo to the extended five-seat constituency and a successful campaign to ensure higher numbers are registered.
It is generally hoped that a 66% turnout almost five years ago will be maintained or exceeded - but apathy remains a prevalent condition in some sectors of society.
The entire process of holding an election is a mammoth logistical exercise and an expensive one at that.
Here in Mayo, a total of 231 polling stations will be open from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. next Friday, after which all of the ballot boxes will be transferred to the count centre at the TF Royal Theatre in Castlebar, where counting of votes begins at 9 a.m. on Saturday with a full result likely to be reached on Sunday.
The first boxes to be opened will be those from the Ballina electoral area, followed by Castlebar, Westport, Belmullet, Claremorris and Swinford. By noon on Saturday, the tally people will have established where the seats are likely to go - but, at that point, they cannot be certain in regard to how transfers will pan out over the course of the count.
The expectation is that, after the first count, there will be eight leading contenders for the five seats - namely, in alphabetic order, Dara Calleary (FF), Lisa Chambers (FF), Rose Conway-Walsh (FG), Mark Duffy (FG), Alan Dillon (FG), Martina Jennings (FG), Keira Keogh (FG), Paul Lawless (Aontú) and Patsy O’Brien (Independent).
With a quota in the region of 11,000, there is a pre-election consensus that it is unlikely to be exceeded after the first count but, of course, it cannot be ruled out.
Three of the eight top contenders will subsequently lose out following a series of individual and cumulative eliminations, leaving a result that looks increasing likely to be FG (2), FF (2) and SF (1).
However, such an outcome cannot be made with confidence as it's impossible to access the full impact of the restoration of a significant area of south Mayo to the constituency as well as the absence from the field of outgoing TD Michael Ring and where his former votes go.
Mayo has a penchant for embracing at least one new face at the cost of one established name - so an upset cannot be ruled out by any stretch of the imagination.
It remains to be seen if voters will make their choices in a more parochial way than they did in 2020 and, if they do, how it will impact on the outcome.
Sinn Féin has a big battle on its hands to hold on to its seat but the indications suggest it will despite the recent setbacks.
VERDICT
In the final analysis, I am going with a prediction of Alan Dillon, Dara Calleary, Rose Conway-Walsh,Keira Keogh and Lisa Chambers.
That’s two, two and one.