Lawless tipped to take Mayo seat at FF's expense

by Caoimhín Rowland

The bookies are rarely completely off but when it comes to five seats.

With the PR voting system and big bets distorting individuals prices, it comes to detecting trends locally to see how the lay of the land will develop.

In 2016 the people of Ireland bade for Labour’s blood, in 2020 there was a nationwide sentiment to do more for the environment that helped see Eamon Ryan sweep into power.

Now if there is any prevailing wind at the backs of any one party, it’s undeniably Aontú.

That’s why I’ll go out on a limb and pip Paul Lawless to take the fifth seat in Mayo.

The first three are more predictable.

In fact we’ve all said them to one another when making our predictions in passing conversations over the last few weeks. Dillon, Dara and Rose.

Then it gets a bit hairy, but I believe, both Maxwell and Murray’s eliminations will be of huge benefit to Lawless and he could be the shock of the campaign.

His party leader Peadar Toibín received acclaim for his performances in the arduous ten leader debate on Upfront with Katie Hannon.

Modern politics isn’t about solving key issues, more important than that is making plenty of noise.

Aontu, both on RTÉ last week and locally, have succeeded in this.

Lawless will perhaps have the support of his 39 Mayo county council colleagues in this general election, his promotion to Dáil Eireann would relieve the chamber of his questions and motions that appear to irk so many!

Lawless and Aontu are solidifying support online.

There has been a vacuum of coherent voices to the right of centre and as the one outgoing retiring deputy noted back in March.

“We’ve gone too far with the social reforms,” Michael Ring bellowed when Varadkar departed.

You don’t get your ear closer to the ground than Michael Ring and he listens to all 14,000 plus who voted for him in 2020 as many traditional rural voters feel there is worry afoot

Aontú, by supporting a No campaign and accompanied by a forensic leader who has been vocal on issues such as immigration that connects with people on the ground, has, I sense, evoked a shift in sentiment toward them, both amongst a young cohort and a former traditional vote.

For a one man show, it’s a miraculous rise and one to keep an eye on.

Their involvement in government is unlikely to occur unless Sinn Féin are in government, perhaps strengthening a majority but we will see a handful of their party members elected.

When there’s an increase in seats, it tends to favour a fringe party or candidate.

Lawless received 2,574 FPVs in 2020 as a relative unknown, his position as outspoken county councillor on the fringes of the council chamber has now helped to elevate his profile further.

The dogs on the street are yet to sound it but if there is going to be further shaking up of the status quo in county Mayo, the schoolteacher is best placed to take it, much to the chagrin of Michael O’Leary.

MY PREDICTION

Alan Dillon (FG)

Rose Conway-Walsh (SF)

Dara Calleary (FF)

Martina Jennings (FG)

Paul Lawless (Aontú).