Mayo punters putting money where their mouth is

by Caoimhín Rowland

A CLOSER look at betting odds over the last three weeks can help to form a better picture of what we are likely to see come polling time.

The bookies opened with Martina Jennings and Dara Calleary with the shortest odds, while now, with money spent on the market in Mayo, there’s a clear trend emerging, which is good news for the Castlebar Minister of State.

Alan Dillon has seen his odds shorten considerably. He is now the favourite to top the poll in this constituency.

That will not come as a surprise to any observer due to his high profile.

This analysis of betting odds trends over the past three weeks in Mayo should be regarded as a fascinating insight rather than a clear indication of the likely final result.

Alan Dillon (Fine Gael) – Strengthening position as poll-topper

Week 1: 1/5

Week 2: 1/10

Week 3: 1/20

Dillon's odds have shortened dramatically, establishing him as the clear favourite to top the poll. His progression reflects both Fine Gael's historical strength in the county and his individual prominence, the former GAA star has wide county appeal and a solid base in the county town to help him progress from final seat clincher in 2020 to first home just four years later.

Martina Jennings (Fine Gael) – Initial favourite losing momentum

Week 1: 4/6

Week 2: 5/6

Week 3: 5/6

Despite her early strong odds, Jennings has seen no significant improvement. Her stagnation could suggest that while she remains competitive, other candidates, notably Dillon, have outpaced her but that could change in the closing days.

Dara Calleary (Fianna Fáil) – Steady performance

Week 1: 1/10

Week 2: 1/4

Week 3: 1/4

Calleary has maintained strong odds, likely due to his established presence in Mayo politics. A Calleary has never lost an election ever, that’s a fact that looks safe as houses according to the betting trends.

However, his lack of movement might indicate that while he is safe, he is not gaining additional momentum and is being weighed down by Fine Gael newcomer, Mark Duffy.

Lisa Chambers (Fianna Fáil) - a positive trajectory

Week 1 : 10/11

Week 2: 8/11

Week 3 : 8/15

It’s a positive trajectory for Lisa Chambers’ HQ as her odds shortening from 10/11 to 8/15 reflects steady and growing confidence in her campaign. After missing out on a stint in Brussels earlier in June, the Castlebar-based Senator is fighting for her political career this week, still she will be satisfied to see money moving in her favour behind the desks at local betting shops.

Rose Conway-Walsh (Sinn Féin) – Consistent but static

Week 1: 11/10

Week 2: 1/5

Week 3: 1/5

Conway-Walsh remains firmly in contention but has not seen her odds improve since Week 1. Perhaps reflecting a consolidating factor within Sinn Féin's support locally but possibly a plateau in growth as Mayo's traditional voting patterns hold.

Keira Keogh (Fine Gael) – Capable of springing surprise

Week 1: 4/1

Week 2: 5/2

Week 3: 11/4

Keogh's odds have lengthened, indicating a declining likelihood of securing a seat. This trend suggests the focus among Fine Gael supporters is solidifying around Dillon and Duffy, but the Michael Ring factor in the Keogh campaign could spring a surprise.

Mark Duffy (Fine Gael) - Holding Stead

Week 1: 13/8

Week 2: 8/15

Week 3: 8/15

Duffy's odds have stabilised after an initial improvement, suggesting that he is a solid contender for a seat but not a frontrunner to lead.

It will be a long and nervy count for the former Independent councillor but one he will hope his Mayor Mark moniker will help to fend off Chambers and Jennings via transfers.

Gerry Murray (Sinn Féin) – Diminished prospects

Week 0: 5/1

Week 1: 11/2

Week 2: 13/2

Murray's odds have lengthened, reflecting Sinn Féin's focus on Conway-Walsh and possibly indicating waning confidence in his appeal due to a seemingly last minute addition.

Patsy O’Brien (Independent) -still in contention

Week 1: 4/6

Week 2: 9/2

Week 3: 4/6

Patsy O’Brien’s odds show volatility between Week 1, Week 2 and Week 3, with an initial strong position followed by a decline and then a return to favourable odds by Week 3.

This pattern could suggest fluctuations in campaign momentum, possibly due to either external events or changing voter dynamics.

CANDIDATES CONSIDERED OUTSIDE BETS

Paul Lawless (Aontú)

Improved slightly from 16/1 to 10/1, showing some potential appeal among voters, Lawless will be there or thereabouts in the final hours of counting and, if not elected, his transfers will have a serious say in determining the fifth and final seat.

Stephen Kerr (Independent)

He initially didn’t appear in the first price list, but since Week 1 has held steady at 12/1, giving him an outside chance, but firmly the second strongest Independent in the field at a time when that grouping are polling strongly nationally.

Chris Maxwell (Independent Ireland)

Odds shortened from 33/1 to 20/1, but still a long shot for the recently elected Louisburgh councillor.

Michael Boxty O'Conail (Green Party)

His position has remained steady at 40/1 showing that he is unlikely to be considered a chance to win a seat in the Mayo constituency.

Joe Daly (PBP)

Remains a significant outsider at 200/1.

* Gerry Loftus and Sean Forkin not listed by bookmakers at time of writing.

The odds posted today (Thursday) by Paddy Power are as follows:

Alan Dillon (Fine Gael) 1/200

Rose Conway-Walsh (Sinn Fein) 1/14

Dara Calleary (Fianna Fail) 1/8

Lisa Chambers (Fianna Fail) 4/11

Mark Duffy (Fine Gael) 8/13

Keira Keogh (Fine Gael) 15/8

Martina Jennings (Fine Gael) 11/4

Patsy O'Brien (Independent) 3/1

Paul Lawless (Aontú) 3/1

Gerry Murray (Sinn Fein) 6/1

Stephen Kerr (Independent) 8/1

Chris Maxwell (Independent Ireland) 14/1

Micheal O Conaill (Green) 100/1

Joe Daly (PBP) 200/1