Unpredictable nature of transfers will ultimately decide Mayo election result

While the 16 candidates contesting next Friday's general election in the five-seat constituency have been primarily focused in canvassing for first preferences votes, the relatively unknown strategists behind the scenes have been trying to figure out how their candidate or candidates can attract as many transfers as possible.

Because that's the secret to success in a field in which a significant number of contenders are closely bunched in the popularity stakes and depend hugely on second, third, fourth and fifth preferences votes in order to be elected.

A case in point was Alan Dillon, contesting his first general election for Fine Gael in 2020 following the retirement of long-serving TD and former Taoiseach Enda Kenny.

He attracted more transfers (5,779) than first preference votes (5,193) in order to ensure his election in the seventh and final count.

To be so transfer friendly was a gift for the former Mayo GAA star as he had been behind Lisa Chambers (6,373), an outgoing Fianna Fáil TD at the time, and his Ballina party colleague, Michelle Mulherin, an outgoing senator.

Apart from what parties try to implement between their own candidates, there is no exact science when it comes to securing transfers.

The most famous transfers in Mayo political history were the 600 that the aforementioned Enda Kenny received from Fianna Fáil Senator Frank Chambers in the 2002 general election which ensured the Castlebar man survived ahead of his Ballyhaunis colleague Jim Higgins and Kenny subsequently on to lead his party and become Mayo's first Taoiseach.

There was no political logic to those transferst, but it happened.

There was no political logic, either, to Dillon attracting 1,095 transfers from Achill-based Green Party candidate Saoirse McHugh in 2020. But it happened.

Now, getting to the point of this observation, there is a growing perception that the first seat in Mayo may be filled in relatively straight forward fashion - but the remaining four are up for grabs with the destiny of contenders relying on transfers.

The geographical breakdown of the candidates is: North Mayo (5), South Mayo (2), East Mayo (3) and West Mayo (6), so the latter may have an advantage over the others when it comes to the transfer game with the north a close second.

If that proves to be the case, then there may a strong likelihood of three TDs being elected in the west and two in the north with the east and the south missing out.

But, as indicated in the outset, you can never be certain until the votes are counted and the transfers are distributed.

And that's why elections run under the PR system are so fascinating and always will be.