Big talking points from the Mayo count centre

A number of big talking points are emerging from the Mayo general election count centre in Castlebar.

1. The decision of Fine Gael to place a fourth candidate - Martina Jennings - on the ticket in south Mayo has backfired on the party.

Experience observers are convinced it will cost the party a third seat as Ballina-based Councillor Mark Duffy, with 5,913 first preferences, appears to be somewhat isolated in the transfer merry-go-round.

This may not have been the case if the constituency had been divided differently in a three-candidate strategy.

Now, in a typical Mayo political twist, there is a growing possibility that former Fine Gael member - Robeen-based Independent Councillor Patsy O'Brien - could ultimately be elected as a result of transfers from his neighbouring Fine Gael candidate, Ms. Jennings.

And that would serve as a bitter blow to his former party and particularly so in view of the recent controversy that overshadowed his campaign in respect of his expulsion from FG in 2020.

2. The failure of the electorate in Castlebar to embrace the candidacy of Fianna Fáil Senator Lisa Chambers has left many political observers bemused.

Having lost her Dáil seat in 2020 when her vote in her home electorate area dropped to 2,642, it was astonishing that this number shrank further on this occasion to 2,318.

This is in spite of the fact that Chambers was, as one political insider claimed, "arguably the only candidate of the field most likely to be appointed a senior minister in the next administration."

While Alan Dillon may prove that theory wrong, the situation had the look of the county town scoring an own goal in consecutive general elections.

So where does the party go in Castlebar, served now by just one councillor, Al McDonnell.

Crisis talks are imminent, one suspects.

3. The role played in the election by former TD Michael Ring cannot be underestimated.

In the likely event of Keira Keogh taking a seat for Fine Gael, it will be hailed as a triumph for Ring's meticulous planning and campaigning skills.

While Keogh herself also deserves huge credit for her bounce-back-ability after missing out on a seat in the local elections last June, there can be little doubt that she gained the greatest political education of her political life over the past number of weeks.

4. After coming through a difficult period dogged by a number of national controversies, the Sinn Féin support base in Mayo has remained strong.

While a return of 19.4% may represent a five percent drop since 2020, the fact the party's outgoing TD Rose Conway-Walsh is poised to top the poll representing a statement of intent by the organisation.

Remember when Rose was first elected over four years ago, she was Sinn Féin first TD elected in Mayo since Tom Maguire in 1922 and she was also responsible for increasing her party's support base by 14% between 2016 and 2020.

Those who may have been writing her off in the early stages of the campaign are now forced to eat humble pie!

5. The number of people voting for candidates other that those fielded by the three main parties has risen significantly over the past five years.

In 2020, over 7.7% of votes cast were directed away from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin.

On this occasion, that statistic has risen to 26% compared to 74% for the big three.

Although it is unlikely to be a headline figure, it represents a major shift in the Mayo political landscape.

In fact, it would yet be climaxed by the election of Aontú candidate Paul Lawless in the battle for the final seat.

6. The popularity of Fine Gael in three of Mayo's big urban centres is worthy of mention because it augurs well for future of the party in big, urban population areas.

Alan Dillon is the leader in that regard, having secured 6,001 first preferences in Castlebar.

He is followed by Mark Duffy's haul of 4,290 in Ballina with Keira Keogh taking 3,814 in Westport.

In each of those three area, Fine Gael was only bettered by Fianna Fáil's Dara Calleary in Ballina with 4,418.