Mayo election review: A tale of two politicians
By Dr. Richard Martin
I arrived early at the TF on Saturday morning. I was on air with Aidan Crowley on CRCfm and his ensemble cast. Tommy Joe. Ronan O’Malley. Donal O’Shea, Mitch and Francis Brennan.
We were perched on the balcony in the corner of the auditorium. Beneath us we could hear the hustle and bustle as the tallying started.
The tally results started to filter through, and we broke into debate and commentary. Ballina was first. Calleary and Duffy split the town between them with 4,000 plus each. Rose Conway-Walsh held her own with 2,000 plus FPVs.
Castlebar was the one we were all waiting for. When it opened it was a Dillon landslide. He came in with roughly 6,000 FPVs. Lisa Chambers came in with roughly 2,300 FPVs.
These were our two town candidates from the establishment civil war parties. Dillon beat Chambers by nearly 3 to 1.
Why? It comes down to one simple thing. Work.
Dillon got over the line in 2020 by the skin of his teeth. I was there that night. I remember spending the evening waiting and sitting in a corner of the TF drinking tea and munching on animal bars with an FF councillor from north Mayo.
When Dillon got the handful of transfers to push him ahead of Michelle Mulherin his face sank. Mulherin was ahead of Dillon by 43 votes.
Dillon received 1,095 transfers from Saoirse McHugh. Mulherin got 831 transfer votes from McHugh. Mulherin was the next to be eliminated and she pushed Dillon ahead of Lisa Chambers on the final count for the fourth and final seat.
If Mulherin had received more from McHugh than Dillon, on elimination, Dillon's transfers could have elected Chambers as they were both Castlebar candidates. He got over the line in the unlikeliest of fashions.
However, five years later the landscape has completely changed. This time there was no margin for error or nervous waits or hoping for an unexpected unlikely transfer.
He, along with RCW and Dara Calleary, all polled far more strongly than the rest of the pack.
From the minute Dillon was elected in 2020 he knew he had to set up a constituency office and work. There was no other TD in the town. He had the run of the place and thus capitalised on that to maximum effect.
Lisa Chambers decided not to keep her office open. She was a member of the Senate but that’s no excuse. Aisling Dolan is an FG senator in east Galway and has an office in Ballinasloe and Roscommon.
Lisa Chambers didn’t lose out in the days and weeks before this election. In fact, she ran an excellent campaign. Flawless.
But she paid a heavy price due to the perception that she did not do enough constituency work.
Dillon’s office could run through 20/25 constituency concerns in a day. That’s 100 a week, 5,000 a year. If you want to be a TD in rural Ireland, you must be prepared to do the bread-and-butter work.
She lost out because her role as leader of the Senate took more of her time than constituency work, which people expected of her, yet not from other senators in the county.
Her vote in Castlebar in this election was less than her vote in the GE of 2020. That told its own story.
It’s a tragedy because her potential is so obvious. If elected to the Dáil, she was headed for cabinet and potentially challenging for the leadership of FF once Micheál Martin retired.
Her potential was the highest office in the land. But potential is only potential. Lots of people have potential and talent. Without work rate, discipline and consistency potential will never be fulfilled.
As I write, her career in electoral politics is over. She has failed now to be elected in two GEs and the recent European elections. She had an alarming propensity to score own goals. Dillon has far more guile and is oceans shrewder than her in that regard.
We now know that Lisa Chambers is now at a crossroads in her career, but we also know that Dillon will never lose his seat.
He has built up a machine around him. He has the work ethic of Micheal Ring and the shrewdness of Kenny. Kenny didn’t have the same work ethic as Dillon. Not even close. Because his seat is safe, and he has built a solid base in the town he can now focus and strive further in the national arena. He will be a senior minister. That's only a matter of time. A fait accompli.
There were 35 FG TDs elected to the last Dáil - 18 retired at the end of the 33rd Dáil. So, in some sense he is a senior figure in the party now.
Basically, the thrust of what I’m saying is this; he will be a Taoiseach. It was unthinkable and laughable that I would write this even two years ago. But he has demonstrated that he is in it for the long haul. Harris won’t be there forever. Anything that can’t go on forever will end.
It’s unlikely he will be the leader after Harris but in time he will be pushing for the leadership of FG and thus the leadership of the country.
We keep producing people in Castlebar that reach the top. We’ve done it before, and we will do it again. P. Flynn, Micheál O’Morain and Enda Kenny. All major players. Dillon will join that elite select group.
He has the values of Discipline. Consistency. Grit. Determination. Those virtues resonate with the people of Castlebar and Mayo. We like hard-working politicians and we elect them.
So where to go next for FF in the town of Castlebar?
They can’t go anywhere else because they are at rock bottom. They have failed to elect a candidate in the county town for the second time running.
It is inconceivable that this has happened twice over. To lose in 2020 was misfortunate, to lose again in 2024 is carelessness. Beverly Flynn needs to step in.
FF are at an all-time low. Only she and she alone can salvage the wreckage. She is the matriarch of Castlebar FF. That much was evident after the FF convention in the Ivy Tower.
She was mobbed by the members who remember the glory days when FF were the ascendancy.
The big worry is that Dillon is only going to get stronger and stronger in the years ahead in the town. If SF finally decide to open an office in Castlebar that could put even more pressure on FF. Really, it’s time to wake up, identify talent and reinvigorate the party.
Ballina FF are in total contrast to the shambles in Castlebar. They don’t lose elections. Their house is in order. Calleary will hopefully become a cabinet minister in due course. His re-election is a testament to his inner strength and fighting qualities. He didn’t buckle when he was forced to resign after the Clifden debacle. People saw that and admired him even more.
RCW heads the poll. She is a fighter.
Nothing has been handed to her in politics or in life. She has fought her way into prominence in local and national politics. She has shown her election in 2020 was no fluke. SF are the establishment opposition now.
Like Dillon and Calleary, she will never lose her seat. The common denominator between Dillon, Calleary and RCW is their work ethic. All three are package deals. They work on the ground, and they all have national prominence. Of the people and for the people in the common tongue.
You must earn the right to represent the people of Mayo. All three know that and that's why they’re the first home. Comhghairdeachas agus maith sibh go léir.