Mayo made election history in more ways than one

Dr. Richard Martin

I left the TF on the evening of December 1 as the five victorious candidates were heralded to the stage to give their speeches.

I was exhausted. I was with the CRC broadcast team right through the weekend and we were all shattered at the end of it. A brilliant weekend - great fun, but I was tired at the end of it.

I drove back to college in Galway the following day and I’ve had a few days to collect my thoughts and reflect over the weekend's events.

The first important point to note is that this GE was the first time a woman topped the poll in our constituency since the state was founded. It was also the first time two women were elected to the Dáil simultaneously to represent our constituency.

Sinn Féin and Rose Conway-Walsh must’ve been delighted with their victory and the mandate they got from the electorate. She was elected on the sixth count with 11,963 votes, reaching the quota which was set at 11,812.

Michael Ring pipped her to the post in 2020 by 60 votes. Four years later she reached the finish line first.

Her vote showed that the result in 2020 was no fluke, and that SF are here to stay. Some felt or hoped within the establishment that the SF surge in the 2020 GE was just a populist surge that happens every now and again. The Red Spring of ‘92 all over again.

That doesn’t seem to be the case. SF are here to stay and those of the electorate who don’t like it better get used to it.

All things being equal, SF will be happy with the GE of 2024. Post-election they have 39 seats. They’ve established themselves as the establishment opposition.

They are no longer a fringe anti-establishment entity that can be casually dismissed with a pithy remark or jibe.

The old money civil war parties must coalesce and work together to ‘keep them out’. But how long can that continue? How long can they be kept from governing the country?

Time and tide will tell.

I attended Kiera Keogh’s election launch in Westport a few weeks back. I’d heard her speak at Alan Dillon’s launch and at the FG convention. I wasn’t sure if she was going to be elected.

It wasn’t that she wasn’t impressive - she is, it’s just unheard of for someone to claim a Dáil seat after failing to be elected to the council earlier in the year.

I stood at the back of the room and listened to the speeches and took it all in.

Afterwards I was introduced to her briefly. I found her to be personable, sincere and genuine.

When I was driving back to Castlebar later that evening, I asked myself the question, if I found her to be a warm decent person on first meeting why wouldn’t the people on the doors when she started canvassing?

I asked myself another question. Is there any other candidate in the country who has a better political machine? The Ring Machine? No.

Kiera Keogh had the Ringer, Councillor Gerry Coyle and his men in Geesala, Councillor Peter Flynn in Westport, Councillor Donna Sheridan in Balla, Councillor Alma Gallagher and John Prenty from Ballyhaunis all behind her.

I thought about the man behind her and, if history has taught us anything over the last 40 years, it's that you underestimate Micheal Ring at your peril.

If he backs a candidate, he backs a candidate and he wouldn’t be behind her unless he believed in her.

I was on the fence up until that night. I knew from that point on she would be super competitive.

In Westport they see it as a Westport seat.

Those of us in Castlebar with long memories see it as a Castlebar seat. Caoilinn Gaughan will take a seat in 2029. Irony and fate will laugh and jest and make fools of us all.

Castlebar is a dual mandate town. One way or another we will have our two seats in 2029. We wait for it with patience.

The Keogh team knew that the key to success was to press the flesh. She didn’t have a huge profile outside of Westport. Ergo the solution was simple.

Meet people. She's a likeable person and the more people met her the more they would like her.

And that’s all they did. They worked hard and covered the ground.

The people in Westport got the message that we can’t afford to lose our TD, and they backed her to the hilt.

Westport kept their seat. It was one of Ring’s greatest achievements and a fitting end to a stellar career.

A man from humble beginnings who became the state’s greatest ever rural TD, Ring could’ve easily retired and rested on his laurels. He didn’t. He moved heaven and earth to keep his seat in his hometown.

It was a selfless, noble act and demonstrated the huge love he has for his hometown.

Paul Lawless was elected with 9,506 votes on the final and 11th count without reaching the quota.

He is the first Aontú representative ever to be elected to the Dáil from Mayo.

Fresh-faced, young, handsome, articulate, educated, intelligent and a good communicator.

He is 32 years old, from Knock, and a maths and PE teacher in Ballyhaunis Community School.

His FPV was 4,482 and he placed eighth overall after the first count. He was incredibly transfer friendly.

The first big push for home was on the elimination of Steven Kerr when he got 1,420 votes.

During the course of the election campaign there was an obvious overlap between the Kerr and Lawless campaigns.

The extent to which they were working together, if at all, is unclear.

But the bottom line, however, is that a significant transfer of Steven Kerr votes helped significantly in getting Paul Lawless elected to the Dáil.

These are the twists and turns of elections that determine the winners and losers.

I can’t help but remark that there is a stark contrast between the progressive first-time election of two women politicians to the Dáil and the first-time election of Paul Lawless who is conservative Aontu/Pro-Life representative.

Mayo is, along with Dublin Central, one of the most fascinating constituencies in the country.

FG made a huge strategic error in running four candidates.

In hindsight, if Mark Duffy had more territory to canvass he would’ve made it.

Dividing the county up into four quarters was too ambitious. FG know they left a seat behind.

There is increasing speculation that Mark Duffy will be appointed to the senate. That would be a good move. If that proves to be the case, he will open an office in Ballina and Swinford.

The senators in FG are encouraged to work on the ground. Duffy is above all a community man and a worker.

The last few days will have hurt. He’s 32. He’s young. He will live to fight another day.

Time and tide wait for no man. Time moves forward and before we know it the GE of 2029 will be upon us.

When that day comes, Duffy and Gaughan will be ready.