A Mayo minister - or two - in the new year?

by Dr. Richard Martin

And so, this is Christmas. Another year over and a new one to come.

We still await the formation of a new government despite FF and FG having 87 seats between them.

Bertie Ahern was quoted as saying recently that to form a stable government, the coalition would need 94 seats. So where do they find the additional seats?

I would feel the best place to go looking is in the large bloc of independents. A large cohort were elected recently – 17 in total and four more from the recently formed Independent Ireland party.

That’s 21 in total that Micheál Martin and Simon Harris can play footsie with.

It should be relatively straightforward to woo seven or eight of them onside with trips into government buildings, coffee and tea served in silver and chef made crispy biscuits to match.

The palatial surrounds of government and promises of a specially delivered gold plated parish pump usually seals the deal.

TDs all have one key concern – incumbency - holding on to their seat. Independent TDs are always more vulnerable to being picked off than members of the civil war parties.

If something tangible is put in front of them the savvy ones usually bite. Michael Lowry being a case in point.

The Healy-Raes might come in for the tea and biscuits and give some soft talk about Kerry, but when it comes to it, they will avoid the coal face of governance.

It’s a lot easier to howl at the moon from the opposition benches than making the tough decisions required that are necessary to run a country.

They have perfected the art of populist politics, and it has served them well, but the people of Kerry will always be short changed whilst they are ensconced in our national chamber and will never have any real power until they elect politicians who want to effect real change in our society.

The big question is who will sit in the cabinet and the even bigger question is will we have Mayo representation?

Fifteen full cabinet ministers, three super junior ministers and John Callinan (secretary general to the government) convene every Tuesday morning for three hours in the cabinet room to manage the affairs of the country.

Mayo needs a cabinet minister. The strategic development zone around Knock airport needs investment. The Western Rail Corridor needs to be reopened. The infrastructure around south and north Mayo is appalling.

FF came away with 10 more seats than FG in the GE. I would imagine that the cabinet would be split 8-7 with Micheál Martin serving as Taoiseach for three years in rotation with Simon Harris who then serves the final two.

The super juniors could be a 2-1 split in FF favour. The last cabinet was a 6–6–3 three-way split between FF, FG and the Greens.

It’s reasonable to suggest that the people who were full cabinet ministers in the last government will retain their positions going forward so that means there are roughly four vacancies to be filled. Four seats at the heart of power.

Can Dara Calleary and/or Alan Dillon become one of the 15?

Dara Calleary is the most senior politician in the county in terms of experience and longevity. He was a full minister in the last government and had to cruelly step down over what turned out to be a perfectly lawful event during the Covid pandemic.

He has fought his way back to cabinet in the guise of a super junior but now is the time. If he doesn’t become a full cabinet minister when this government is formed, he never will be.

I just wonder what the personal relationship is like between Dara Calleary and Micheál Martin. Have they buried the hatchet? It would only be natural for Calleary to bear some resentment for the harsh way in which he was treated, although he is not that type.

The infrastructure around Ballina and north Mayo is woefully inadequate. Political power has been dominated in this county by Flynn, Kenny and Ring over the last 50 years.

I am not one of those with a closed mindset that all major capital projects should happen in the Castlebar hinterland. Developing Knock Airport and the infrastructure around it benefits the county as a whole. Now is the time for Calleary to deliver.

FG had six people at the cabinet table in the last government. Heather Humphreys has retired. That being the case, there's a vacancy of two.

Could Alan Dillon be one of the two new faces in the cabinet? His star is rising but it’s unlikely that Alan Dillon will become a full cabinet minister in this government particularly if Dara Calleary is at the table.

If Mayo could get two full ministers at the cabinet table, it would be a wonderful day for the county, but I think a more realistic goal for Dillon is to become a super junior minister.

It can’t be completely ruled out that Alan Dillon wouldn’t make the cabinet table either. It’s inevitable with time he will. He has made the right connections in the FG party.

I was at his campaign launch, and I thought it was telling that Simon Coveney – an FG party grandee – came all the way up from Cork to speak, endorse and launch the campaign. He is an ally and supporter of Simon Harris’s, and is an existing junior minister.

However, all things being equal, if he makes it to the cabinet as a super junior minister the people of Castlebar could live with that. We know that a vote for Dillon isn’t a vote wasted.

If Mayo comes away with a full minister and a super junior minister from the incoming government negotiations that's a great day's work.